Bitcoin Rally Fails at $69K–$70K Resistance: What's Next After Rejection? – BTC TA March 3, 2026

The Bitcoin bulls took their opportunity on Monday with a strong rally to the upside. In the space of only 3 hours, the $BTC price climbed around 7.2%, equivalent to about $4,700. However, after hitting $70,000 the price fell back down and has also dropped beneath the critical $69,000 horizontal resistance. Is this the end of the rally, and could Bitcoin fall a lot lower?

$BTC price about to fall back inside channel

Source: TradingView

The positive for Monday’s short rally was that a higher high was accomplished, which goes well with the last higher low. However, the major $69,000 horizontal resistance remained impervious, and the rally was defeated just as soundly as it was the previous time. 

The $BTC price is currently back at the top of the descending channel. Could this be to confirm the breakout before the bulls return to attack that $69,000 resistance again? Possibly, but given that upside momentum is starting to fail, the chances are that the price falls back inside the channel. 

If it does so, there is a double band of support from $65,700 down to $65,000. If this doesn’t hold it’s back to the bottom of the channel and a possibility of a lower low. 

$67,000 support already reached

Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows what is a fakeout so far. It can be seen that there is another decent support level at $67,000. Things are moving quickly on Tuesday morning and the price has already come down to this support, which appears to be holding so far. 

With most of the day left, there is the possibility that there could even be a bounce from here, and if the daily candle body closes above the top of the channel there will be a good opportunity for the bulls to have another go at breaking the major resistance and confirming above.

Be that as it may, with the Middle Eastern conflict widening, the US stock market could continue to falter, and with Bitcoin providing instant liquidity, investors could be induced to sell.

Bear market out to Q4 2026?

Source: TradingView

If one zooms right out into the very high time frame of the monthly, the previous bear markets can be put into perspective. The first thing one notices is that none of them were v-shaped bottoms. Based on the Stochastic RSI indicators, all dragged along for the best part of a year before climbing back to the top.

While the beginnings of each red box don’t show the actual price bottoms of each bull market, the ends do correspond with the first candle or two of the recovery.

So if these last 3 bear markets are anything to go by: 1. We are not at the bottom yet 2. The end of the bear market is not until some point in the last quarter of 2026.

Can we extrapolate out the possible percentage price fall from when the red box starts to where it ends? This is where some investors might argue the validity of this approach. That said, if we take the average of each price fall from entry into each red box until each exit we have roughly 60 to 70% drawdowns.

If we take the price for this bear market from the entry into the red box and we take it down 65% we reach a potential bear market bottom price of around $30,000.

While this might be seen as a bit like a back of a napkin approach, what can’t be denied is that if this bear market plays out in a similar fashion to the last three, we do have a lot more time before a true recovery begins, plus there is scope for the $BTC price to fall quite a bit further.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.