Fed Cut Odds Near 94% as Bitcoin ETFs Absorb Supply While ETH ETFs See Red

Key Takeaways

• ETF split widens: BTC spot ETFs added $301 million for a 2nd straight day of inflows above $300 million while ETH spot ETFs lost another $38 million to register a 3rd consecutive day of outflows.
• Emissions vs. demand (BTC): Yesterday’s ETF bid was worth approximately 2.7k BTC, which is more than 3x current daily miner issuance (~900 BTC/day). ETF bids continue to absorb supply at a rapid pace.
• ETH balance-sheet demand: Bitmine received 80,325 ETH (~$358M) and now holds 1.95M ETH ($8.7B). At the same time, the ETH validator entry queue currently has 860k ETH waiting, which is a 2-year high and underscores staking demand.
• Macro & policy: Rate-cut odds jumped to 93.7% after soft JOLTS report with US tariff revenue hitting $31 billion in August (2025 high), keeping inflation optics in play.
• Positioning tone: BTC continues to hold the $110k shelf (1–3m cost-basis zone); although average BTC per whale for the 100 BTC – 10k BTC cohort keeps declining (~488 BTC/entity), signaling broader distribution/fragmentation.