Oil Slides, Bitcoin Jumps as Iran Hints at End to Conflict

• Oil dropped fast after Iran signaled its willingness to end the war on its terms.
• Brent fell to $104 and WTI to $101 as stocks and crypto flipped risk-on.
• Ceasefire odds remain low at 38% despite the market reaction, as the back-and-forth continues.

Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is ready to end the war if it receives guarantees. The comment marked the first clear signal from Tehran since the conflict began.

Brent crude futures dropped more than 2.9% to around $104 per barrel. US benchmark WTI fell as much as 2% before stabilizing near $101. 

It is important to note that the de-escalation indication leads to a lower risk premium, which led to an oil sell-off.

Guarantees Are Now the Key Condition

Pezeshkian said Iran has the will to end the war but wants guarantees that the conflict will not restart and that its security and interests are protected.

Iran’s demands remain unchanged. These include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, reparations, and broader security assurances. The strait has been a core pressure point, with Iran imposing high transit costs on ships.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there are no formal negotiations yet, only exchanges of messages through intermediaries.

On the US side, President Donald Trump said the war may end soon and suggested US forces could withdraw, adding that the Strait would reopen automatically after de-escalation. Earlier threats to strike Iranian infrastructure had kept oil prices elevated.

Markets Flip Risk-On Within Hours

The oil drop triggered a broad risk-on move across global markets. US equities rallied hard. The S&P 500 rose about 2.4% to 2.7%. The Dow gained over 900 points, up roughly 2% to 2.3%. The Nasdaq led with gains between 3.2% and 3.6%.

Crypto and related stocks reacted immediately. Bitcoin moved above $68,000, rising from intraday levels below $66,000 before pulling back to around $67,800 to $68,200. That still left it up roughly 1.9% to 2% on the day.

Ethereum climbed around 3.5% to just under $2,100. Crypto equities like Coinbase jumped nearly 9% to $175. Bitdeer surged over 12% to a high of $8.98 before easing. NVIDIA gained about 5% to $173.80.

The initial headline hit markets at 12:45 p.m. ET, followed by confirmation across major outlets and official channels within the next hour. Price reactions followed almost immediately.

War Premium Unwind Still Incomplete

Oil has risen nearly 40% since the war began on February 28. At the same time, the S&P 500 is down about 5.6%, and gold has dropped roughly 14% over that period.

Despite Tuesday’s move, uncertainty remains high. Iran’s conditions are extensive, and the US has not formally agreed. There is also no confirmed negotiation framework yet. Prediction markets show only a 38% chance of a ceasefire by April 30.

Related: Iran Warns of Strikes on 18 US Tech Firms, Including Apple, Google, Meta