Ethereum Price Breaks $2,600 as ETH Leads the Post-CPI Rally

Ethereum climbed above $2,600 on September 11, becoming one of the strongest-performing major crypto assets after the latest US inflation report.

At the time of writing, the live ETH price on MEXC was approximately $2,609, up 6.95% over 24 hours. ETH traded between $2,432.84 and $2,666 during the period, producing an intraday range of nearly 9.6%. ETH also gained 4.82% against Bitcoin, showing that this was not simply a market-wide move led by BTC.

The rally is notable because the inflation report was not clearly positive for risk assets. Instead, ETH fell briefly after the data, failed to establish a new low, and then moved sharply higher. That price behavior suggests traders were reacting as much to crowded positioning and limited liquid supply as to the economic report itself.

Hotter CPI Failed to Push Ethereum Lower

US headline inflation increased 0.4% in August from the previous month, while core CPI rose 0.3%. The monthly core figure was higher than expected and increased the possibility of another Federal Reserve rate hike.

Market estimates placed the probability of a September rate increase above 80% following the report. Under normal conditions, rising rate expectations can pressure crypto because higher interest rates make cash and government debt more attractive relative to riskier assets.

ETH initially responded in that direction, falling toward $2,433. However, sellers were unable to extend the decline.

This failure matters. When an asset receives negative macro news but stops falling, traders holding short positions face a difficult decision. The expected bearish catalyst has already arrived, yet the price is no longer responding as anticipated. Closing those positions requires buying ETH, which can add momentum to the recovery.

There is not enough verified liquidation data to describe the entire move as a short squeeze. Still, the rapid reversal from the daily low is consistent with short covering playing an important role.

ETF Inflows Added Real Demand Behind the Rebound

Positioning alone does not fully explain why Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin. ETH also entered the CPI release with improving institutional flows.

US spot Ethereum ETFs attracted approximately $218 million in net inflows during the week ending September 4, marking their third consecutive positive week. On September 9, the products recorded another $34.75 million in combined net inflows.

The iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF, trading under the ticker ETHB, accounted for about $22.94 million of the September 9 total. That brought its cumulative net inflows to roughly $798 million.

These figures do not guarantee that ETH will continue rising. Daily ETF flows can reverse quickly, and institutional buying does not remove short-term volatility. However, several weeks of positive flows provide a stronger foundation than a rally driven entirely by leveraged traders.

ETF demand is especially important when fewer coins are readily available for sale.

Ethereum Exchange Supply Has Fallen to a Multi-Year Low

Glassnode-based data indicates that approximately 15.5 million ETH remains on centralized trading platforms, the lowest level recorded in several years. Exchange balances have declined by roughly 38% from their May 2023 peak of around 25.2 million ETH.

A lower exchange balance is not automatically a buy signal. ETH can leave trading platforms for staking, long-term custody, institutional products or other purposes without producing an immediate price increase.

The effect becomes more important when new demand appears. If ETF purchases and spot buying rise while the tradable supply remains limited, buyers may need to accept higher prices to find enough sellers. This can make Ethereum more responsive during a market rebound.

It can also increase volatility in both directions. A thinner liquid market may amplify gains when buyers dominate, but it can produce fast declines if leveraged positions become overcrowded.

MVRV Has Improved, but It Is Not a Price Target

Ethereum’s MVRV momentum reportedly moved above its 160-day average during the second half of August, ending a negative phase that had lasted for about nine months.

MVRV compares an asset’s market value with the estimated value at which its coins last moved. Traders often use changes in its broader trend to judge whether holder profitability and market momentum are improving.

The recent crossover supports the idea that ETH may be entering a healthier market phase. However, it should be treated as confirmation rather than a precise timing tool. The indicator does not reveal how high Ethereum will rise, nor does it prevent a pullback after a rapid daily gain.

For the current rally, the combination is more meaningful than any single metric: ETF inflows are positive, exchange supply is low, ETH is outperforming BTC, and valuation momentum has improved.

EIP-8288 Supports the Long-Term Story, Not Today’s Entire Rally

EIP-8288, proposed by Vitalik Buterin and Thomas Coratger, introduces a draft framework for aggregating quantum-resistant signatures and STARK proofs.

The proposal aims to reduce the heavy data and verification costs associated with post-quantum signatures and privacy-related proofs. Instead of placing every large proof directly in a block, multiple proofs could be combined into a recursive STARK.

This is relevant to Ethereum’s longer-term technical roadmap, particularly around privacy, scalability and protection against future quantum-computing risks. However, EIP-8288 remains a draft and should not be presented as the main reason ETH suddenly moved above $2,600.

The immediate rally is better explained by price positioning, ETF demand and limited exchange supply. The proposal adds confidence to Ethereum’s longer-term development story, but its practical impact will depend on further discussion, implementation work and potential adoption.

MEXC View: This Rally Is a Positioning Test, Not a Fed Pivot

MEXC’s view is that the most useful signal from this move is not simply that ETH crossed $2,600. It is that Ethereum absorbed a hotter inflation report and still outperformed Bitcoin.

That suggests the market may have entered the CPI release with too much bearish positioning. Once ETH held above its initial low, traders had to rapidly adjust their exposure. Positive ETF flows and reduced exchange supply then gave that adjustment more force.

This does not mean macro risk has disappeared. The CPI report strengthened the case for higher interest rates, meaning Ethereum is rising against a more difficult policy backdrop. Calling the move a rate-cut rally would therefore be misleading.

The stronger bullish case would be confirmed if ETH continues to outperform BTC after short positions have already been reduced and ETF inflows remain positive. If ETH loses its relative strength once the immediate squeeze fades, the rally may have been driven mainly by temporary positioning.

Ethereum Price Outlook: What Comes After $2,600?

Ethereum’s next move depends on whether fresh spot demand replaces the buying created by short covering.

In a bullish scenario, ETH holds most of its post-CPI gain, ETF products continue to attract capital, and ETH remains strong against BTC. Under those conditions, the break above $2,600 could develop into a broader trend rather than a one-day reaction.

In a weaker scenario, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase continue rising, bond yields move higher, and ETF flows turn negative. If ETH also gives back its post-CPI advance, it would indicate that buyers were not ready to support the move once forced short covering ended.

The key question is therefore not whether ETH briefly trades above a specific number. It is whether demand remains visible after the first burst of volatility has passed.

FAQ

Why is Ethereum rising today?

Ethereum rose after briefly falling on hotter US inflation data. The failure to make a deeper low likely encouraged short covering, while positive ETF flows, low exchange supply and ETH’s relative strength against Bitcoin supported the rebound.

How much did ETH rise in 24 hours?

MEXC data showed ETH gaining approximately 6.95% over 24 hours at the time of writing. It moved from a low of $2,432.84 to a high of $2,666 during the same period.

Is the Ethereum rally caused by expected rate cuts?

No. The latest CPI report actually increased expectations for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike. The rally appears to reflect negative news already being priced in, followed by a rapid adjustment in bearish positions.

Will Ethereum continue rising above $2,600?

That depends on whether ETF inflows and spot demand continue after short covering slows. Continued ETH/BTC strength would support the bullish case, while rising interest-rate expectations and ETF outflows could weaken it.

Is EIP-8288 already active on Ethereum?

No. EIP-8288 is currently a draft proposal. It describes a possible method for aggregating post-quantum signatures and STARK proofs, but it has not yet become an active Ethereum network upgrade.