Unusual Tuesday release for US jobs report – Commerzbank

The US labour market report breaks with tradition by landing on a Tuesday, but expectations are modest, with job growth seen at just 50k and little change in unemployment. Even a sizeable surprise may fail to stir markets, as data collected after the historic government shutdown is widely expected to be distorted, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

November payrolls seen muted after shutdown

“Today is finally the day. And fittingly for this year, in which everything seems to be different and somewhat chaotic, the US labour market report, which is normally always released on a Friday, will be published today on a Tuesday.”

“However, we should not expect too much clarity. Our economists assume that the US economy created 50,000 new jobs in November, that hourly wages rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month and that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%. Such a labour market report is unlikely to cause much volatility in the market.”

“However, even a labour market report that deviates significantly from expectations is likely to have only a muted impact on the market. After all, any figures reported tomorrow should be treated with caution. Bear in mind that the data was collected shortly after the longest US government shutdown in history. It is therefore to be expected that certain distortions have occured.”