Dow Futures slip below key support as CPI looms and value shifts lower

After defending a crucial support band for four sessions, Dow futures have broken down and now trade below the daily decision point, leaving CPI to determine whether price repairs higher or accepts the lower structure.

Dow Futures trading desk plan — Feb 13 (Mid London – New York)

Macro backdrop into the release

Dow futures enter the New York session with CPI as the main volatility trigger. The US Consumer Price Index for January 2026 is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, February 13.

Market focus is on whether inflation continues to cool at the margin or remains sticky enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious. Several previews expect headline CPI and core CPI to rise around 0.3% month-on-month, with the year-on-year pace seen easing toward ~2.5%, while noting that start-of-year repricing and tariff pass-through risk could keep inflation pressures uneven.

In that environment, the desk approach stays simple: define the structure, then let CPI determine whether price accepts back above the key decision point or confirms a lower-value regime.

Structure-first context

The Dow has lost its most important daily support at 50,252 after defending it for the past four sessions and has rotated back into the lower side of the range. Price is also trading below the daily Central Pivot (CP) at 49,555, which is the session’s primary decision point.

As of print, the index trades around 49,381, sitting just below 49,406 (micro). The POC is currently near 49,440, just above that same micro reference. That alignment matters: it suggests the auction is attempting to stabilise near the breakdown zone, but the session has not repaired back above CP—so any bounce still needs acceptance to become more than a response.

Today’s MacroStructure map (daily references)

Upper range / Prior control

• 50,252 = broken top-of-range / prior key support (now the ceiling unless reclaimed).

Decision point

• 49,555 (CP) = line in the sand for the day.

Lower range / Next demand zone

• 48,923 = lower range pivot / key downside magnet if acceptance builds lower.

Recovery ladder (only if 49,555 is reclaimed and accepted)

• 49,719 – 49,821 – 49,904 – 49,986 – 50,088 – 50,252

Lower structure pathway (if 49,555 remains rejected)

• 49,406 – 49,314 – 49,239 – 49,164 – 49,072 – 48,923

TPO/value read (what the profile is saying)

• The sell phase has carved out a lower value zone, and the auction is currently trying to stabilise, around 49,406–49,440 (micro + POC cluster).
• Holding above 49,406 while failing to reclaim 49,555 often reads as responsive bidding only—useful for short rotations, but not a regime change.
• A clean reclaim of 49,555 with value building above it shifts the day into repair mode, opening the measured rotation back through the mid references.
• POC tell: As long as POC remains pinned below 49,555, rallies can be treated as suspect. A POC migration above 49,555 is one of the earliest tells that the auction is repairing higher.

Primary scenarios into CPI

Scenario A — Reclaim and hold above 49,555 (repair becomes valid)

Trigger: Price regains 49,555 and holds it with acceptance (not just a wick).

Expected rotation:

• First: 49,719 – 49,821
• Then: 49,904 – 49,986 – 50,088
• 50,252 becomes the larger objective only if acceptance holds above 50,088 and the tape stops fading rallies.

Invalidation rule (discipline):
If price reclaims 49,555 but cannot hold above it and quickly fails back below, treat the move as distribution and stand down until CP is reclaimed again with acceptance.

Scenario B — CP rejects (49,555 caps; lower acceptance resumes)

Trigger: Failure to reclaim 49,555, or a reclaim that immediately fails back below.

Expected rotation:

• First: 49,406 (current battleground).
• Then: 49,072.
• If acceptance builds below 49,072, 48,923 comes into focus.

Weakening signal:
If price regains 49,555 and value begins to build above it (POC/value migrating higher), the continuation thesis is weakened. At that point, the market is no longer behaving like a clean lower auction.

Scenario C — CPI spike and re-auction (volatility first, then structure)

CPI can produce the first impulse, but the more useful signal is where price accepts after the spike.

Post-CPI acceptance checklist

• Bullish acceptance: impulse up, then holds above 49,555 on the first pullback – opens repair toward 49,719 / 49,821.
• Bearish acceptance: impulse down, then holds below 49,406 on any bounce – keeps the lower pathway live toward 49,072 → 48,923.
• Trap/chop the warning: whips above 49,555 then snaps back under 49,406 (or vice-versa) – stand down until the auction bases around a reference and value stops flipping.

Execution notes (structure-first, trade-the-edges)

• Keep it binary: 49,555 defines the day. Above = repair. Below = continuation risk.
• Immediate battle: 49,406 + POC ~49,440. If this zone can’t hold, the odds increase of a rotation into 49,314–49,072.
• Proof level above: 50,252 is the reclaim that would fully neutralise the breakdown narrative. Until then, it remains the higher ceiling.

Methodology

This desk plan defines state-dependent reference levels (CP, upper/lower structures, micro bands, and value/POC) ahead of the New York open, then documents whether price accepts or rejects those levels through the tape. The goal is not prediction—it’s mapping the battlefield and trading the response.

Structure defines context; price reveals response.