Bitcoin’s relief bounce has slowed down following an aggressive short-term rally. After jumping past key levels last week, buyers now face two major challenges: reclaiming control above resistance and dealing with weakening on-chain metrics. Technical Analysis By Shayan The Daily Chart BTC’s daily chart shows a clear bounce from the $80K demand zone, pushing price […]Bitcoin’s relief bounce has slowed down following an aggressive short-term rally. After jumping past key levels last week, buyers now face two major challenges: reclaiming control above resistance and dealing with weakening on-chain metrics. Technical Analysis By Shayan The Daily Chart BTC’s daily chart shows a clear bounce from the $80K demand zone, pushing price […]

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Drop to $80K Still Possible if BTC Doesn’t Reclaim This Key Level Soon

2025/12/05 21:29

Bitcoin’s relief bounce has slowed down following an aggressive short-term rally. After jumping past key levels last week, buyers now face two major challenges: reclaiming control above resistance and dealing with weakening on-chain metrics.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

BTC’s daily chart shows a clear bounce from the $80K demand zone, pushing price back into the $90K–$93K resistance block. The asset also remains trapped inside the descending channel and has now stalled just below the upper trendline resistance.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages (now both around 108K) still sit way above the current price. As long as BTC remains below these MAs, the broader trend can’t flip bullish. The RSI also reflects uncertainty, sitting around 45 and failing to break into bullish territory.

This makes the $90K–$95K area the most critical short-term zone. A clean break and daily close above this region could signal a trend shift. Until then, this move remains a bear market rally inside a larger downtrend.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4H chart, Bitcoin has formed a structure resembling a breakout and retest from a descending trendline that began forming in late October. After multiple rejections at $94K, BTC pierced above this trendline but is now hovering just around the $91K level again.

While the local market structure looks constructive, a bearish divergence is evident on the RSI, and momentum is weakening. If buyers fail to hold above the $90K level in the coming sessions, a drop back toward the $80K zone is on the table. On the flip side, a solid push above $94K would put 100k+ targets back in play quickly.

On-Chain Analysis

Active Addresses (100-Day Moving Average)

The on-chain picture is not helping the investors much right now. Active Bitcoin addresses have been steadily declining since February 2025, even while the price made new all-time highs. That divergence finally played out during the sharp drop in October and November.

Now, even though price has bounced from 80k to 91k, active addresses (measured with the 100-day SMA) continue to fall, recently dipping below the 875k level. This suggests that retail and user activity is still shrinking, and the rally is likely being driven by fewer participants, possibly whales or institutional traders.

Sustained rallies typically require renewed network activity and user engagement. Until a trend reversal in address activity occurs, this bounce remains suspect from a fundamental perspective.

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Drop to $80K Still Possible if BTC Doesn’t Reclaim This Key Level Soon appeared first on CryptoPotato.

Disclaimer: The articles reposted on this site are sourced from public platforms and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not necessarily reflect the views of MEXC. All rights remain with the original authors. If you believe any content infringes on third-party rights, please contact service@support.mexc.com for removal. MEXC makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the content and is not responsible for any actions taken based on the information provided. The content does not constitute financial, legal, or other professional advice, nor should it be considered a recommendation or endorsement by MEXC.

You May Also Like

China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise

China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise

The post China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. China Blocks Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D as Local Chips Rise China’s internet regulator has ordered the country’s biggest technology firms, including Alibaba and ByteDance, to stop purchasing Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D GPUs. According to the Financial Times, the move shuts down the last major channel for mass supplies of American chips to the Chinese market. Why Beijing Halted Nvidia Purchases Chinese companies had planned to buy tens of thousands of RTX Pro 6000D accelerators and had already begun testing them in servers. But regulators intervened, halting the purchases and signaling stricter controls than earlier measures placed on Nvidia’s H20 chip. Image: Nvidia An audit compared Huawei and Cambricon processors, along with chips developed by Alibaba and Baidu, against Nvidia’s export-approved products. Regulators concluded that Chinese chips had reached performance levels comparable to the restricted U.S. models. This assessment pushed authorities to advise firms to rely more heavily on domestic processors, further tightening Nvidia’s already limited position in China. China’s Drive Toward Tech Independence The decision highlights Beijing’s focus on import substitution — developing self-sufficient chip production to reduce reliance on U.S. supplies. “The signal is now clear: all attention is focused on building a domestic ecosystem,” said a representative of a leading Chinese tech company. Nvidia had unveiled the RTX Pro 6000D in July 2025 during CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Beijing, in an attempt to keep a foothold in China after Washington restricted exports of its most advanced chips. But momentum is shifting. Industry sources told the Financial Times that Chinese manufacturers plan to triple AI chip production next year to meet growing demand. They believe “domestic supply will now be sufficient without Nvidia.” What It Means for the Future With Huawei, Cambricon, Alibaba, and Baidu stepping up, China is positioning itself for long-term technological independence. Nvidia, meanwhile, faces…
Share
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 01:37
Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Share
Coinstats2025/09/18 02:25