Tesla (TSLA) Stock Climbs as Optimus Robot Dreams Take Center Stage

TLDR

• Tesla stock climbed 1.7% to $454.48 Thursday after a 4.1% Wednesday rally sparked by humanoid robot optimism
• Wall Street analysts project Optimus robot revenue between $31 billion and $400 billion depending on timeline and adoption rates
• Elon Musk’s compensation package requires Tesla to sell one million robots cumulatively by 2035
• New Model 3 Standard launched in Europe at €37,970 to counter competition from cheaper Chinese and European EVs
• Analysts value the robot business at $111 to $640 per share using different revenue multiples and timeframes

Tesla shares closed at $454.48 Thursday, marking a 1.7% gain. The stock had jumped 4.1% the previous day on growing excitement about the company’s robotics ambitions.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

This marks just the 13th time Tesla has closed above $450. The previous occurrence was roughly a month ago on November 5.

The rally started when Barclays analyst Dan Levy highlighted potential White House support for robotics development. He noted that a 2026 executive order related to humanoid robots was under consideration.

Levy explained that robotics are becoming a key competitive battleground with China. Companies are seeking federal funding and tax incentives for automation projects.

The research note boosted interest in Tesla’s Optimus robot. Musk plans to sell Optimus to external customers starting in 2026.

However, the robot isn’t available yet. No concrete pricing, cost structure, or demand data exists for investors to evaluate.

Analysts Size Up the Robot Market

Wall Street analysts are attempting to quantify Optimus despite limited information. Baird analyst Ben Kallo based his calculations on Musk’s comments about $20,000 unit costs and assumed 50% gross margins.

Kallo upgraded Tesla to Buy in September with a $548 price target. He didn’t project specific robot sales but noted Tesla has multiple growth opportunities.

RBC analyst Tom Narayan took a longer view. He forecasts $400 billion in robot sales by 2050 and values that at 10 times revenue.

After discounting back to present value, Narayan calculates the robot business is worth $640 billion today. That represents over one-third of his total Tesla valuation.

His $500 price target implies a market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion. Narayan rates the stock Buy.

Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu uses a 2035 timeframe instead. He projects 1.25 million robots sold at $25,000 each for $31 billion in revenue.

Yu applies a 30 times revenue multiple and discounts the value back. He estimates the robot business adds $111 per share to Tesla’s current valuation.

His price target sits at $470 with a Buy rating. All three analysts covering robotics rate Tesla as a Buy.

Musk’s Personal Stake in Robot Success

The projections remain highly speculative since functional humanoid robots don’t exist commercially yet. But Musk has strong personal incentives to succeed.

His trillion-dollar compensation package includes robot-specific milestones. Tesla must sell one million robots total by 2035 for him to achieve that target.

The bullish analyst forecasts suggest hitting one million units would be straightforward. Some projections show Tesla selling multiple millions of robots by 2035.

Europe Gets Budget Model 3

Tesla launched the Model 3 Standard in Europe on Friday. The lower-priced variant aims to revive demand as competition intensifies.

Pricing starts at €37,970 in Germany and 449,990 Swedish crowns in Sweden. Those convert to approximately $44,256 and $47,849 respectively.

The U.S. version launched earlier at $36,990. Tesla introduced a budget Model Y crossover in Europe during October.

Chinese and European automakers are releasing more affordable electric vehicles. Tesla is responding with cheaper options across its lineup.

Friday premarket trading showed shares up 0.22% at $455.32.

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