VanEck Sees Bitcoin at $2.9M by 2050 as Debt Risks Rise

Key Highlights:

• VanEck predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may reach $2.9 by 2050 in one of its reports.
• In the report, VanEck also highlights that small Bitcoin allocations improve portfolio returns without adding much risk.
• Rising global debt strengthens Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign asset.

VanEck has released a detailed report where it is highlighting Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, and is forecasting that the base price of the token may hit $2.9 million per coin by 2050. With this figure, it indicates a 15% compound annual growth (CAGR) from current levels.

According to the report, Bitcoin is a low-correlation reserve asset, recommending 1-3% of portfolios, up to 20% for risk-tolerant investors, to benefit from its convex returns amid a potential sovereign debt crisis.

VanEck in its report also talks about how Bitcoin has evolved from being a speculative token to an institutional-grade asset which is supported by thorough Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs) over a 25-year period.

Base Case: 15% CAGR Driven by Adoption Pivots

VanEck’s valuation model is based on bitcoin capturing two major markets which include global trade settlement and central bank reserves.

• Settlement Role: Bitcoin takes 5-10% of international trade and 5% of domestic GDP by 2050, producing $13,751 billion in annual BTC transaction volume.
• Reserve Asset: It holds 2.5% of central bank balance sheets as trust in G7 debt declines.

This forms the $2.9 million price target. An extreme bullish scenario, or “hyper-bitcoinization,” sees $53.4 million per BTC (29% CAGR) with a 20% trade share and gold-like reserve adoption.

Even the bear case reaches $130,000 (2% CAGR), showing limited downside from current levels. The report also stresses that these are long-term structural shifts that are driven by global M2 growth and dollar weakening, not short-term speculation.

Portfolio Power: Boost Shape Ratios with Small Allocation

VanEck’s table show how adding a small amount of BTC to a traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio has performed over time, using Morningstar data up to December 31, 2025.

In this model, stocks refer to the S&P 500, bonds to the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index and Bitcoin to the MarketVector Bitcoin Index. The comparison looks at return over 1,3 and 5 years, long-term average annual returns, risk (volatility), maximum drawdown, and the Sharpe ratio, which measures return per unit of risk. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates a better risk-adjusted performance.

VanEck’s data shows that a traditional 60/40 portfolio without BTC delivered a 9.68% long-term annual return with 9.11% risk and a Sharpe ratio of 0.88, while adding small BTC allocations steadily improved outcomes, 0.5% BTC raised the Sharpe ratio to 0.95, 1% BTC to 0.99, and 3% BTC pushed the long-term return to 13.05% with the highest Sharpe of 1.08.

Across, 1-, 3- and 5-year periods, BTC allocations of 1-3% consistently enhanced returns and risk-adjusted performance without materially worsening drawdowns, highlighting Bitcoin’s diversification benefits.

In short the data implies that adding Bitcoin in small amounts improved portfolio performance by increasing returns without significantly increasing risk. BTC’s low correlation with stocks and bonds makes the portfolio a lot more efficient overall.

Volatility Demystified: Structural, Not Speculative

In the report, the global investment management firm also highlights that futures trading explains most of BTC’s price movement, while actual volatility has been steadily falling, showing that the market is maturing.

Global money supply (M2) now plays a bigger role in BTC’s price than the U.S. dollar alone, indicating BTC is evolving into a more global, macro-driven asset rather than one tied mainly to U.S. market conditions. So, BTC’s big price swings come mainly from heavy trading and leverage, not from problems with its fundamentals.

Talking about price of the token, at press time, the price of BTC stands at $90,242.74 with an uptick of 0.2% in the last 24-hours as per CoinGecko.

VanEck’s 2026 roadmap highlights on-chain indicators like Relative Unrealized Profit and futures funding rates, which currently suggest BTC is in a mid-cycle phase with room for further upside. These metrics help investors time entries during normal market ups and downs.

The report also stresses on the bigger picture, which includes rising global debt makes BTC increasingly important as a non-sovereign reserve asset. Ignoring Bitcoin, VanEck warns, could mean missing long-term protection and growth as traditional financial systems face pressure.

Also Read: Bitcoin Faces Rejection at $95K Amid $243M ETF Outflows