Monero (XMR) Price Breaks Long-Term Pattern as Privacy Sector Gains Traction

TLDR

• Monero price broke out of a long-term ascending wedge pattern in January 2026, with XMR currently trading around $623 after reaching an $800 all-time high
• Privacy sector shows strong network activity with Monero processing 27,415 daily transactions while the sector holds an $11.56 billion market cap
• Whale investors are accumulating XMR according to CryptoQuant metrics showing consistent large order sizes during the recent price surge
• Technical analysis points to potential targets of $910-$1,150, but requires a clean break and hold above $800 to confirm continuation
• Long-heavy leverage positioning on Binance ($13.94 million in longs vs $5.72 million in shorts) creates risk of liquidation cascades if price falls below $620

Monero price has emerged as a leading performer in the privacy cryptocurrency sector. The asset reached an all-time high near $800 on January 14, 2026, before pulling back to current levels around $623.

The January 2026 price action marked a technical milestone for XMR. The cryptocurrency broke above a multi-year ascending parallel wedge pattern that had contained price movement since 2017.

This breakout represents a shift from years of consolidation. The monthly chart shows XMR moving beyond its previous range structure.

Network Activity Supports Price Movement

Daily transaction data from bitinfocharts shows Monero processed 27,415 transactions on January 18, 2026. The privacy sector as a whole maintains an $11.56 billion market cap.

DASH recorded 29,754 daily transactions while ZEC processed 5,996 transactions. Monero remains the dominant asset in the privacy coin category.

On-chain metrics from CryptoQuant reveal increased whale participation. Average order size data shows consistent large orders throughout the recent rally.

These bigger order sizes typically indicate institutional or whale-level investors entering positions. This pattern suggests accumulation at current price levels.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator currently sits near 0.05 on the 12-hour chart. This metric tracks whether capital is flowing into or out of the asset.

However, the Money Flow Index has declined below 61.7 even as price moved higher between January 10 and January 19. This bearish divergence indicates dip buying remains weak.

Exchange Flow Patterns Shift

Spot market data shows changing investor behavior. On January 18, Monero saw exchange outflows of approximately $23.95 million.

These outflows signal accumulation as coins moved from exchanges to private wallets. But on January 19, the trend reversed with $2.31 million in exchange inflows.

The timing of these inflows coincided with the breakout attempt. This suggests some holders used the price rise to take profits.

Daily chart analysis shows XMR finding support at the 20-day exponential moving average. This level now acts as dynamic support after the wedge breakout.

The technical structure points to potential upside targets. If XMR reclaims and holds above $800, the measured move projects toward $910-$1,150.

The upper boundary of the consolidation flag pattern has been breached on the 12-hour timeframe. Holding above this breakout zone keeps the bullish case intact.

Derivatives data from Binance shows an imbalanced market structure. Long liquidation leverage totals $13.94 million versus $5.72 million in short leverage over the next 30 days.

This 70% skew toward long positions creates downside risk. The $620 level becomes critical as a break below would trigger cascading liquidations.

A loss of the $530 level would invalidate the bullish pattern entirely. Most long positions would face forced liquidation at that point.

The current setup requires XMR to reclaim $800 with a clean 12-hour close. Without this confirmation, upside momentum faces headwinds from leverage pressure and weak dip buying.

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