Trump’s Greenland Tariff Threat Shakes Oil Markets But Prices Hold Firm

TLDR

• Oil prices held steady around $64 per barrel for Brent and below $60 for WTI on Tuesday as traders monitored multiple market factors
• President Trump threatened 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting February 1, escalating to 25% by June 1 if no deal on Greenland is reached
• China reported better-than-expected Q4 GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with crude oil output rising 1.5% year-on-year
• Markets remain under pressure from supply surplus concerns as OPEC+ producers increase output and physical grades decline in the Middle East
• Some tight spots remain in physical markets due to issues at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium port and Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field

Oil prices remained stable on Tuesday as markets weighed competing pressures from geopolitical tensions and economic data. Brent crude held at $64 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate traded below $60.

President Donald Trump renewed his push to acquire Greenland over the weekend. The move has created tension with European allies and raised concerns about potential trade conflicts.

Trump announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on goods from eight European countries starting February 1. The affected nations include Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Britain.

China Growth Provides Price Support

China released economic data on Monday showing 5.0% GDP growth for 2025. The figures came in better than market expectations and provided some support to oil prices.

China’s crude oil output grew 1.5% year-on-year in 2025. The data from the world’s top oil importer helped lift demand sentiment among traders.

Supply Surplus Concerns Weigh on Markets

Oil markets continue facing pressure from oversupply concerns. Physical crude grades in the Middle East have declined in price as OPEC+ producers raise output levels.

The International Energy Agency has warned repeatedly about a potential glut in 2025. The agency is set to publish its next market analysis on Wednesday.

Some tightness remains in specific physical markets. Issues at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium port in the Black Sea have created supply constraints.

Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is also experiencing problems. These factors are contributing to a near-term shortfall of crude from the Mediterranean region.

Markets are watching Venezuela’s oil sector after Trump said the US would run the industry following the capture of Nicolas Maduro. Vitol offered Venezuelan oil to Chinese buyers at discounts of about $5 per barrel to ICE Brent for April delivery

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