XRP Price Prediction as Iran Denies Trump’s Claim of Productive Talks

XRP remained near a critical support level on March 23 as global markets reacted to conflicting statements from the United States and Iran regarding potential diplomatic engagement. President Donald Trump said the two countries had engaged in “very good and productive conversations” and confirmed a five-day pause on planned U.S. strikes targeting Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

The announcement initially eased geopolitical concerns and triggered a short-term rebound across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Digital assets moved higher following the statement, with Bitcoin rising above $71,000 after briefly trading below $68,000 earlier in the session. XRP followed the broader market trend, holding near the $1.40 range during the initial reaction. Oil prices also dropped sharply, with U.S. crude falling below $84 per barrel and Brent crude declining, triggering liquidations in energy-linked derivatives markets. Traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the U.S. dollar also moved lower as market participants adjusted positions.

The initial market reaction shifted after Iranian officials rejected Trump’s claims. Iran’s Foreign Ministry stated that no direct or indirect talks had taken place with the United States. Officials also described the comments as psychological warfare and indicated that conditions around the Strait of Hormuz would not return to pre-war levels under current circumstances. The response added uncertainty to financial markets, leading to a partial reversal in earlier gains across cryptocurrencies and other asset classes.

Bitcoin Price Recovers Above $70,000 as Market Recovers

The conflicting narratives introduced volatility across multiple asset classes. Crypto markets, which had reacted positively to the prospect of reduced military escalation, began to retrace as the absence of confirmed talks became clear. 

Bitcoin moved back toward the $70,000 level, while altcoins, including XRP, showed signs of consolidation rather than continuation of the earlier upward move.

Oil remained a central driver of sentiment. Prices had declined sharply following Trump’s statement about postponing strikes, reflecting expectations of reduced supply disruption. However, Iran’s denial reintroduced uncertainty about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global shipping route. 

XRP Leverage Ratio Drops as Market Enters Reset Phase

On-chain and derivatives data provide additional context for XRP’s current positioning. The estimated leverage ratio on Binance has declined to approximately 0.14, reflecting a sharp reduction in leveraged exposure compared with levels seen during the 2025 rally. This reading aligns with levels last observed in late 2024, when XRP was trading significantly lower.

A decline in leverage typically indicates that speculative positions have been reduced, lowering the likelihood of forced liquidations driven by crowded trades. The current structure suggests that much of the excess risk accumulated during earlier price advances has been unwound. While this creates a more stable market environment, it also points to reduced participation from short-term traders.

Price action shows XRP testing horizontal support just below $1.38 after a recent decline from the $1.44 range. At the same time, momentum indicators such as the relative strength index have formed higher lows, even as the price recorded lower lows. This pattern is commonly identified as a bullish divergence, indicating that selling pressure may be weakening despite continued downside in price.

Concurrently, market experts have also pointed to XRP’s broader technical structure. Analyst Egrag Crypto stated that XRP continues to hold a multi-year ascending trendline, forming what is described as a macro ascending triangle. 

Source: X

According to the analysis, the breakout from this structure has already occurred, with current price action representing a retest phase rather than a breakdown. The framework identifies potential upside levels at $8, $17, and $27 based on Fibonacci projections, contingent on the trendline holding and the structure remaining intact over time.