| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 💹 Trade with pro tools |
| Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk controls. |
| 👉 Open account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🚀 Smooth orders, clear control |
| Advanced order types and market depth in one view. |
| 👉 Create account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 📈 Clarity in volatile markets |
| Plan entries & exits, manage positions with discipline. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| ⚡ Speed, depth, reliability |
| Execute confidently when timing matters. |
| 👉 Open account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧭 A focused workflow for traders |
| Alerts, watchlists, and a repeatable process. |
| 👉 Get started → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| ✅ Data‑driven decisions |
| Focus on process—not noise. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
Arthur Hayes says the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over: he argues that a permanently increased money supply and broader monetary easing make historic halving-led peaks unreliable, and that cheaper money will sustain demand for Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
-
Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer apply
-
Monetary easing and lower interest rates increase liquidity for risk assets.
-
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, liquidity shifts, and central-bank policy are altering historical patterns.
Bitcoin four-year cycle may be over — increased money supply supports BTC. Read why this changes historic halving patterns and what investors should watch.
Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle over?
The Bitcoin four-year cycle may be ending according to Arthur Hayes, who argues that a sustained increase in global money supply and renewed monetary easing remove the historical conditions that produced halving-driven peaks. This shifts how traders should assess timing and risk.
Why does Arthur Hayes say increased money supply benefits Bitcoin?
Hayes points to lower interest rates and global policy aimed at “running the economy hot” as reasons liquidity will rise. More cash and cheaper credit typically lift risk-on assets, and Bitcoin has historically tracked such liquidity trends alongside equities.
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 📈 Clear interface, precise orders |
| Sharp entries & exits with actionable alerts. |
| 👉 Create free account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧠 Smarter tools. Better decisions. |
| Depth analytics and risk features in one view. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🎯 Take control of entries & exits |
| Set alerts, define stops, execute consistently. |
| 👉 Open account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🛠️ From idea to execution |
| Turn setups into plans with practical order types. |
| 👉 Join now → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 📋 Trade your plan |
| Watchlists and routing that support focus. |
| 👉 Get started → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 📊 Precision without the noise |
| Data‑first workflows for active traders. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
How have recent events changed the cycle dynamics?
Key structural changes include the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, altered liquidity conditions, and active monetary policy from major central banks. These factors can produce price moves before and after halvings, deviating from the prior four-year pattern.
What evidence supports this view?
Hayes notes that Federal Reserve rate cuts and policy stances in major economies are making money cheaper and more plentiful. He cites observable impacts: increased cash flows, supportive equity markets, and elevated interest among institutional buyers.
Which experts agree or disagree?
Gabe Selby of CF Benchmarks suggests current cycle valuations are still 20–50% undervalued relative to liquidity. Other analysts say the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs changed timing patterns. Adam McCarthy of Kaiko cautions that crypto is still young and patterns remain uncertain.
How should investors respond?
- Reassess timing assumptions: Avoid relying solely on past halving-based schedules.
- Monitor liquidity indicators: Watch central-bank guidance, money supply metrics, and ETF flows.
- Maintain risk management: Use position sizing and diversification to manage volatility.
Comparison: Traditional Cycle vs. Current Environment
| Factor |
Traditional Cycle |
Current Environment |
| Primary driver |
Halving-driven scarcity and market sentiment |
Monetary policy, liquidity expansion, institutional flows |
| Price peak timing |
Typically year after halving |
Peaks possible before or after halving |
| Crash magnitude |
Often 70–80% declines post-peak |
Depends on liquidity and macro policy, less predictable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Bitcoin still respond to halvings?
Halvings remain a supply-side event, but their price impact is now mediated by liquidity, ETF availability, and macro policy. Expect more variability in outcomes than in prior cycles.
What macro signals should traders watch?
Watch central-bank rate actions, statements on monetary easing, money supply trends, and institutional flow data for clues on demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 📈 Clear control for futures |
| Sizing, stops, and scenario planning tools. |
| 👉 Open futures account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧩 Structure your futures trades |
| Define entries & exits with advanced orders. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🛡️ Control volatility |
| Automate alerts and manage positions with discipline. |
| 👉 Get started → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| ⚙️ Execution you can rely on |
| Fast routing and meaningful depth insights. |
| 👉 Create account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 📒 Plan. Execute. Review. |
| Frameworks for consistent decision‑making. |
| 👉 Join now → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧩 Choose clarity over complexity |
| Actionable, pro‑grade tools—no fluff. |
| 👉 Open account → |
Key Takeaways
- Cycle re-evaluation: The Bitcoin four-year cycle may no longer be a reliable timing tool due to changing macro and market structures.
- Monetary policy matters: Broader monetary easing and increased money supply can sustain Bitcoin demand.
- Actionable insight: Combine liquidity metrics, ETF flow data, and macro signals rather than relying solely on halving timelines.
Conclusion
Arthur Hayes argues that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is effectively over as an era of increased money supply and global monetary easing reshapes price drivers. Investors should refocus on liquidity, policy signals, and institutional flows to gauge Bitcoin’s trajectory and manage risk accordingly.
Published by COINOTAG on 2025-10-09. Last updated 2025-10-09.
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧱 Execute with discipline |
| Watchlists, alerts, and flexible order control. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧩 Keep your strategy simple |
| Clear rules and repeatable steps. |
| 👉 Open account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧠 Stay objective |
| Let data—not emotion—drive actions. |
| 👉 Get started → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| ⏱️ Trade when it makes sense |
| Your plan sets the timing—not the feed. |
| 👉 Join now → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🌿 A calm plan for busy markets |
| Set size and stops first, then execute. |
| 👉 Create account → |
| COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup |
| 🧱 Your framework. Your rules. |
| Design entries/exits that fit your routine. |
| 👉 Sign up → |
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/arthur-hayes-suggests-bitcoins-four%E2%80%91year-cycle-may-be-ending-as-increased-money-supply-could-support-gains/
