MicroStrategy stock drops below Bitcoin value, signaling waning playbook momentum

Strategy’s MSTR common stock broke down below the price level at which the company is valued below its BTC holdings. The metric suggests the shares may be undervalued, but also shows decreased enthusiasm for playbook buying. 

Strategy’s common stock MSTR continued its slide, trading at the lowest levels for 2025. MSTR sank to $225.34, a level at which the market capitalization of Strategy is below the estimated value of its BTC holdings. 

The shares are down more than 73% in the year to date, while BTC still retains net gains of about 15%, and over 68% at its peak. Strategy still lists its mNAV metric at 1.23, but the common shares are now a worse investment compared to the price of BTC. Previously, MSTR traditionally responded by spiking even more during BTC rallies. 

As MSTR fell, BTC also lost some of its previously regained price levels. BTC dipped again on Wednesday, losing the $105,000 level. The coin crashed to $101,983, causing another wave of long liquidations. 

Is MSTR viable? 

Just days before the recent price slide, Chanos & Co. closed its MSTR short position, signaling a return to confidence. 

MSTR at the recently lower price may remain viable, as Strategy has shown a trend of using preferred shares instead of common stock. MSTR issuance may continue only above a certain price level, allowing more BTC purchases. Using the MSTR facility at a low price for current weekly purchases will only deepen the dilution. 

MSTR prices remain closely linked to BTC with the recent downside. The playbook worked on the way up, but it proves challenging for the share price when the BTC rally stalls. The stock is also a proxy for speculative BTC demand, seeking a greater upside. With low demand for the stocks, the playbook buyers are signaling low confidence in BTC. 

Open short interest for MSTR remained elevated in Q3, signaling even more caution around the stocks. 

For Strategy, a low price for MSTR may mean a longer period of not using the common stock facility. During the 2025 cycle, MSTR dilution was faster than the initial plan, which aimed to extend the issuance until 2030.

BTC treasuries still grow, though at a slower pace

BTC treasuries have not shown signs of diminishing, and it takes 131 BTC to enter the top 100 companies. 

Smaller companies have managed debt or other raises to buy limited amounts of BTC. Public companies now hold 1,055,266 BTC, with smaller weekly additions from Strategy. Sales of treasury funds are rare, and mostly come from companies that gained some of their BTC through mining. 

Over 4M BTC is held in the wallets of large entities, as ETFs remain a large factor for demand. Despite this, the initial era of DAT companies trading at a premium seems to be over.

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