Bitcoin Faces Potential 60% Correction as 2026 U.S. Midterms Approach, Says 10x Research

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to hold above the $90k support level as it declines by 2% in the last 24 hours. According to market data, the asset has fallen by 11% in the last 30 days and 19% in the last 90 days. Bitcoin’s daily volume has also recorded a marginal decline to $55.9 billion, with its dominance down to 58.56%.

Meanwhile, Markus Thielen of digital asset investment research firm 10x Research believes that a more brutal crash is underway. Speaking in an interview, he predicted that the market could fall by 60% due to the 2026 US midterm election cycle.

According to him, previous midterm election cycles were accompanied by significant sell-offs. With the upcoming cycle, he believes that the market could have its pullback intensified by the weakening institutional flows and bearish on-chain signals.

On the other side, Thielen did not rule out the possibility that this expected decline could be offset by falling inflation and other macroeconomic factors.

Previous Assessment of the Bitcoin Market

Before his December 1 assessment, Thielen disclosed in a Bloomberg interview that the 2024 market run was driven by the rising institutional demand. Also, he pointed out that the asset was exhibiting signs of fatigue and could cause the asset to underperform. On top of this, investors may be forced to rebalance their portfolio.

According to Thielen, Bitcoin has lost momentum since the October rate cut caused the “Uptober” tradition to be broken for the first time in six years, as noted in our earlier post. At that time, it was predicted that a 25-basis-point cut could also be witnessed on December 10. The impact spilled into November, as CNF indicated in its coverage that investors lost $500 billion in a correction recorded in the first week.

Echoing a similar sentiment, analyst Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Bitcoin could fall to its April low of $76k if it fails to maintain its current structure.

The actualization of this prediction implies that the projection that BTC could trade at $160k by Christmas may be invalid. As examined by CNF, the asset was expected to first reclaim the $100k level before making a subsequent move to this level.