Will the Santa rally be a Letdown?

Bitcoin (BTC) charged toward $90,000 during the early Asia trading hours on Monday as a key market metric suggested a “tactical” upside potential for BTC price. 

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin is up 6.5% from recent lows, fueling “Santa Rally” hopes with targets up to $120,000. 

• Short liquidations are dominating, which can provide fuel for the bulls.

• Bitcoin price must not fall below $84,000 for a sustained recovery.

”Santa rally” talk returns as BTC gains $5,000

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting an intra-day high of $89,850, up 6.5% from a local low of $84,400.

Bitcoin is “looking for a Santa Rally,” analyst AlphaBTC said in an X post on Monday.

An accompanying chart suggested that the ongoing recovery could see the BTC/USD pair rise higher, first toward the yearly open at $93,300 and later toward the $98,000 and $100,000 resistance zone.

Fellow analyst Captain Faibik said Bitcoin was looking to break out of a bullish megaphone pattern after consolidating within a wide range stretching from $82,000 to $95,000 since Nov. 22. 

Related: $90K BTC vs. record gold price: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The “longer the consolidation, stronger and bigger the rally that follows,” the analyst added.

The measured target of the megaphone pattern is $120,000, representing a 34% rally from the current price.  

Not all analysts expect the “Santa rally” to materialize, however, as six-figure BTC price forecasts conflict with warnings of a drawdown to $70,000.

Tracking the “Santa rally” window (Dec 24 – Jan 2) over the last five years, Ardi said Bitcoin has been posting “diminishing returns and actual sell pressure,” with +34.5% gains in 2020 being an outlier.

The chart below, based on the four-year cycle, shows that “2025 sits in the same post-halving position as 2021,” when BTC posted -7.9% returns over this period, the analyst said, adding:

Bitcoin’s derivatives give bulls “tactical” advantage

Bitcoin’s current market setup offers tactical upside potential, reinforced by a favorable derivatives structure in the futures market, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr, who said in a Monday X post: 

The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s regime score is at 16.3%, placing the BTC/USD pair in the upper neutral zone, a historically bullish signal.

The key for the bulls comes from the derivatives liquidation structure, which indicates a predominance of short position closures, which can create upward pressure on the price.

The long/short liquidation dominance oscillator has dropped to -11%, signalling a surge in forced short position closures, while its 30-day moving average remains positive at 10%, as shown in the chart below. 

“This divergence points to a recent surge in forced short position closures,” he said, adding:

Bitcoin’s key support remains $84,000

Bitcoin’s price has held successfully above the $84,000 psychological level since retesting it on Nov. 11. This has remained a critical level on traders’ radars and one that has to be defended to avoid further downside.

Trader and analyst Daan Crypto Trades said that $84,000 “remains a key area to defend for the bulls on the high timeframe.”

Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap reinforces the importance of this level. The immediate support sits at $84,000-$85,600, where investors acquired about 976,000 BTC. 

Holding above this level is a key prerequisite for regaining momentum toward $100,000 or higher.

As Cointelegraph reported, the bears look to breach the support at $84,000, with their sights set on the next target at $80,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.