Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: H200 Chip Stuck at Chinese Customs After U.S. Approval – What’s Next?

TLDR

• The U.S. approved Nvidia’s H200 AI chip for export to China last week with conditions, but Chinese customs has told agents the chip is not permitted to enter the country.
• Taiwanese server maker Inventec, which builds AI servers using Nvidia chips for Chinese clients at its Shanghai factory, says the decision now “appears to be stuck on the China side.”
• The H200 is Nvidia’s second-most-powerful AI chip and represents a major flashpoint in current U.S.-China relations.
• It remains unclear whether China wants to ban the chip outright to support domestic chipmakers or is using the issue as leverage in broader trade negotiations with Washington.
• Inventec President Jack Tsai stated the company will wait for China’s decision and cannot violate regulations, leaving orders frozen despite strong demand from Chinese firms.

The back-and-forth over advanced AI chips just took an unexpected turn. Nvidia received U.S. approval last week to export its H200 AI chip to China under specific conditions. But the chip still can’t get into the country.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

Chinese customs authorities have informed customs agents that the H200 is not permitted to enter China. This creates a standoff that’s different from past chip export disputes. Usually, U.S. export controls are the main barrier. This time, the holdup appears to be on Beijing’s end.

Inventec Corporation is watching closely. The Taiwanese server manufacturer builds AI servers that use Nvidia chips for Chinese customers. Most of these servers come from Inventec’s Shanghai factory.

Strong Demand Meets Political Uncertainty

The H200 represents Nvidia’s second-most-powerful AI chip. It’s designed for large-scale data processing and AI training tasks. Chinese tech firms have shown strong interest in acquiring the chip to boost their AI capabilities.

But demand alone won’t determine the outcome. Tsai made it clear the decision comes down to politics. “It depends on the political direction, because the issue ultimately comes down to whether China allows it,” he said.

The chip has become a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Beijing faces a choice. Allowing the H200 could help Chinese companies close AI development gaps faster. Blocking it could create more room for domestic chip manufacturers to grow as China pursues technological self-reliance.

China’s Motivations Remain Unclear

Nobody knows exactly what Beijing plans to do. Three possibilities are on the table. China might implement an outright ban to protect and promote domestic chipmakers. The government could still be reviewing the U.S. restrictions before making a final call. Or Beijing might use the H200 issue as a bargaining chip in broader trade negotiations with Washington.

For Nvidia, this adds another layer of uncertainty around China sales. The company secured U.S. approval, which used to be the main hurdle. Now the final decision rests with Chinese authorities. Nvidia shares closed at $186.23 on Friday, down 0.44%.

Analysts remain bullish on the stock overall. The consensus rating is a Strong Buy with an average price target of $263.44. That represents a 41.46% upside from current levels.

The situation creates an unusual dynamic for investors to track. Export controls typically come from the U.S. side. This reversal puts the spotlight on Chinese policy decisions instead. Until Beijing clarifies its position, Inventec and other manufacturers will keep orders on hold while Chinese customers wait.

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