Bitcoin’s ‘Massive Rotation’ On The Rocks, Says Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin’s price path remains under pressure as macro conditions weigh on risk assets, and a growing chorus of voices questions whether a rapid rotation into crypto is at hand. Veteran market analyst Benjamin Cowen argued in a Thursday video that Bitcoin could continue to bleed against the stock market for some time, casting doubt on the notion that investors will pivot decisively from metals like gold and silver into digital assets in the near term. The backdrop features gold and silver trading near all-time or multi-decade highs, even as Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim momentum. Gold hovered around $5,608.33 per ounce and silver near $121.64 per ounce, according to Trading Economics, underscoring a rare convergence of risk-off signals across traditional assets. Bitcoin traded around $82,859 at the time of publication, a drop of roughly 7.8% over the prior week, per CoinMarketCap. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sat in “extreme fear” territory, signaling a cautious mood among crypto participants.

Key takeaways

• Benjamin Cowen warned that Bitcoin is likely to continue underperforming the broader stock market, casting doubt on a near-term rotation from gold/silver into crypto.
• Gold and silver have surged, with gold around $5,608.33/oz and silver near $121.64/oz, supporting the narrative of non-correlated assets amid macro stress.
• Citi projects silver hitting $150 in the next three months, driven by Chinese demand and a weaker US dollar; the trade backdrop remains complex for precious metals investors.
• Other analysts see a potential turning point for crypto, with expectations of a re-risking cycle into Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) crystallizing in early 2026 and possibly February–March, depending on macro flow dynamics.
• Bitcoin’s price action remains fragile in the near term, but divergent views point to a potential bottom over the coming weeks if historical patterns repeat.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Bearish

Price impact: Negative. Bitcoin has declined on the week, reflecting softer risk appetite and ongoing headwinds for crypto assets.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold

Market context: The recent price action sits within a broader risk-off phase for crypto, where liquidity and macro risk sentiment influence BTC’s relative performance versus equities and traditional safe havens. The juxtaposition of record-high precious metals and a cautious crypto tape highlights the sensitivity of crypto assets to macro cues and liquidity cycles.

Why it matters

The tension between traditional safe havens and crypto markets matters because the path Bitcoin follows could influence the wider digital-asset space for months to come. If Cowen’s assessment proves accurate, BTC may remain under pressure until macro confidence improves or a decisive shift in risk appetite emerges. On the other hand, the opinions of other market observers underscore that crypto cycles are not monolithic and can diverge from equity and commodity cycles, especially if liquidity conditions improve or if there is a sustained inflow of risk-on capital into digital assets.

Analysts who see a potential bottom point to a pattern in which gold leads during macro stress and Bitcoin follows once risk appetite returns. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, has argued that the market sits near a traditional cusp where investors begin re-risking into Bitcoin. He has suggested that, historically, Bitcoin bottoms tend to lag gold’s relative strength by roughly 14 months, with a rotation potentially materializing in February or March and a bottom formation if the cycle plays out as expected within a 40-day window. This line of thought sits alongside the broader narrative that gold often leads during macro stress, serving as a bellwether for more speculative assets later when conditions improve. If this pattern holds, BTC could begin to show resilience as risk sentiment begins to stabilize toward the end of the quarter.

Additionally, Andre Dragosch of Bitwise Europe has noted that Bitcoin trades at a relative discount to gold, implying limited downside if flows turn. His view suggests that an inflection point could emerge if capital begins to rotate back into crypto as part of a broader rebalancing strategy. While these observations are contingent on a range of macro and market-specific factors, they contribute to a nuanced view: BTC may not be doomed to a steep and protracted drawdown if catalysts align to shift investor sentiment in early 2026.

The price action also sits amid a broader monitoring of how crypto markets respond to shifts in macro policy, dollar strength, and cross-asset correlations. The juxtaposition of record levels in precious metals against a crypto market that has struggled to regain momentum underscores the ongoing complexity of the transitional period for digital assets. The coming weeks will be a test of whether Bitcoin can decouple from the broader risk-off impulse or whether the current stance will persist until a more durable macro recovery takes hold.

In this environment, a number of investors will be watching not only BTC’s price trajectory but also the underlying flow dynamics that could signal a broader shift in risk appetite. The coming weeks could reveal whether the cautious stance among traders is a temporary pause or the start of a longer consolidation as macro indicators, liquidity signals, and narrative drivers align in a new direction.

What to watch next

• February–March window: Monitor for any uptick in risk-on positioning that could signal re-risking into Bitcoin, in line with Hundal’s near-term expectations.
• 40-day lookahead: Track BTC price action and relative strength versus gold to identify potential bottom formation patterns if historical relationships hold.
• Q1 2026 flows: Watch for indicators of shifts in capital allocation that could serve as an inflection point for BTC, as suggested by Bitwise Europe’s research commentary.
• Gold–BTC dynamics: Observe whether Bitcoin begins to close the gap with gold on a relative basis, which could foreshadow a broader risk-on rotation into digital assets.

Sources & verification

• Benjamin Cowen, in a YouTube video, discussing Bitcoin’s price path and its relation to the stock market: link
• Gold and silver price levels cited: Trading Economics (gold around $5,608.33/oz; silver around $121.64/oz)
• Reuters report on Citi’s silver forecast to $150: Reuters
• Bitcoin price and weekly performance data: CoinMarketCap
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index sentiment: Alternative.me

Bitcoin under pressure as macro dynamics shape the near-term path

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been navigating a cautionary tape as investors weigh the likelihood of a sustained risk-on recovery against persistent macro headwinds. In a recent assessment, Cowen warned that BTC could continue to underperform the stock market in the near term, challenging the assumption that precious metals would pivot decisively into crypto. The argument centers on the idea that a broad rotation from traditional stores of value into digital assets may not materialize quickly enough to counteract prevailing risk-off dynamics. The discourse is further complicated by competing viewpoints: while some analysts anticipate a late-cycle re-risking into Bitcoin, others see a potential for a deeper, protracted adjustment before a potential rebound takes hold.

The immediate price context reinforces this ambivalence. Bitcoin has traded in a range around the mid-$80,000s, with the latest readings placing it near $82,800–$83,000 as traders assess forthcoming macro data and potential regulatory moves. The price action sits against a backdrop of record or near-record levels in gold and silver, which historically can influence the narrative around crypto’s role as an alternative store of value. The juxtaposition raises a central question for market participants: will the crypto market’s pain translate into a broader reset that paves the way for an eventual rotation, or will BTC remain mired in a downcycle until macro conditions improve?

Market participants also watched a set of optimistic perspectives that argue for a potential rebound. Hundal’s comments highlighted a traditional cycle in which gold leads macro stress scenarios, with BTC often following suit once risk appetite improves. If this dynamic holds, February and March could mark a transitional period when investors recalibrate risk exposure, potentially propelling BTC higher as liquidity conditions stabilize. Dragosch’s assessment that Bitcoin trades at a relative discount to gold adds another layer to the discussion, suggesting that a flows-driven impulse could help close the gap if capital begins to rotate back into crypto assets in early 2026. While the evidence is not conclusive, the narrative framing underscores the importance of monitoring cross-asset relationships and liquidity signals in the weeks ahead.

For readers tracking the sector, the current moment underscores the delicate balance between traditional safe-haven assets and digital assets that frequently respond to different catalysts. The price action and sentiment metrics indicate a cautious stance among investors, with a spectrum of views about when and how a sustained reversal might emerge. As traders weigh the evidence—ranging from the macro backdrop to on-chain signals—the coming weeks are likely to reveal whether BTC can stage a durable turn or remain tethered to broader risk-off dynamics. The story remains open, with room for both continued consolidation and a potential early-2026 inflection depending on how macro forces evolve and how investor flows evolve in response.

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