Bitcoin tests long-term cost support at $76K – Market bottom?

The weekend dip struck at a moment when market structure already showed signs of strain. This pushed Bitcoin [BTC] below a level long viewed as structurally secure.

The $76,000 zone mattered because it aligned with the long-term realized cost basis. This was built through extended accumulation that was left untested for roughly 27 months.

That durability reflected dominance by patient capital and limited short-term supply. The break did not emerge out of panic.

Instead, ETF outflows, tighter liquidity, and macro risk aversion weakened spot demand, while short-term holders began realizing losses.

The drop in the 7-day realized cost change indicates that new entrants needed to reposition their investments rather than sell all of their holdings.

As this shift unfolded, traders became more cautious.  This caution led to a decrease in risk exposure while increasing hedging.

Sentiments shifted from confidence to caution. In this situation, Strategy’s cost basis was broken, which meant that its Bitcoin assets were incurring losses.

Yet the position remains unrestricted, which removes forced selling risk. For Michael Saylor, the breach reframes strategy.

Losses are only on paper. However, if the weakness continues, it presents an opportunity for more accumulation while reducing the average cost.

Furthermore, this situation strengthens the long-term strategy rather than hindering it.

Bitcoin breaches the 76K support zone

The sell-off accelerated as Bitcoin broke below the $76,000 zone, a level that previously anchored market structure.

That breach triggered swift reactions, as traders cut exposure and shifted toward defensive positioning.

Volume expanded on the downside, signaling urgency rather than orderly rotation. Moreover, RSI slipped toward oversold territory near 30, reflecting exhaustion rather than reversal.

Price now stabilizes around $78,000, while the $80,000 zone stands out as the first reclaim target. That level matters because it aligns with prior support turned resistance and short-term moving averages.

Bulls must restore acceptance above $80,000, slow sell pressure, and rebuild spot demand. Without that response, downside consolidation risk remains elevated.

Derivatives markets turn defensive as liquidity thins

Funding conditions weakened as the average rate slid to around -0.0026% at press time, reflecting a fading long bias across perpetual markets.

That decline stemmed from aggressive long unwinds, softer spot demand, and traders paying to stay short as the price trended lower.

Bitcoin followed this pressure, drifting toward the low $80,000 region as leverage was reset.

Over the weekend, thin liquidity magnified each move, allowing modest sell flows to push price disproportionately.

At the same time, options Open Interest rose while volumes stayed muted, signaling positioning rather than active speculation.

Traders prepared for volatility without committing size. This implies caution rather than panic, hence leaving the price sensitive to renewed liquidity or flow shocks.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin slipping below the $76,000 cost basis signals a liquidity-led reset driven by forced repositioning, not panic.
• Negative funding and defensive derivatives positioning leave the price highly sensitive to liquidity shifts and a potential $80,000 reclaim.