Archer Aviation (ACHR) Stock Drops After-Hours as Q1 Guidance Disappoints

TLDR

• Archer Aviation reported a Q4 EBITDA loss of $137.9 million, worse than the $122 million Wall Street expected.
• EPS came in at -$0.26, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.17 by $0.09.
• Q1 2026 EBITDA loss guidance of $160–$180 million far exceeded analyst expectations of $110 million.
• The stock fell 4.3% in after-hours trading to $7.20, despite rising 5.8% during the regular session.
• Archer ended the quarter with $2 billion in liquidity, enough to fund operations through to projected EBITDA breakeven in 2029.

Archer Aviation had a decent Monday — until it didn’t.

The stock climbed 5.8% during the regular session on March 2, closing at $7.52. Then the earnings came out.

After the bell, ACHR dropped 4.3% to $7.20 in after-hours trading as investors digested a weaker-than-expected result and guidance that came in well above projected spending levels.

Archer Aviation Inc., ACHR

For Q4, Archer posted an EBITDA loss of $137.9 million on revenue of just $0.30 million. Wall Street had penciled in a loss of $122 million. EPS landed at -$0.26, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.17 by $0.09.

That alone wasn’t catastrophic. But the Q1 2026 guidance is what really spooked the market.

Archer is projecting a Q1 EBITDA loss of between $160 million and $180 million. Analysts had expected closer to $110 million. That’s a wide gap, and it signals heavier near-term spending than the market had priced in.

For context, Archer reported an EBITDA loss of $95 million in Q4 of the prior year, so losses are clearly accelerating as the company ramps up.

Where the Money Is Going

Archer ended the quarter with $2 billion in liquidity. Based on analyst projections for cash burn, that’s enough runway to get to 2029 — when the company is expected to reach positive EBITDA on projected sales of over $1.7 billion.

Full-year 2026 analyst estimates sit at an EBITDA loss of around $500 million from $31 million in revenue. That’s a lot of red ink, but the company is in a pre-commercial phase.

On the regulatory front, FAA certification could come as early as late 2026, which would be a key milestone. Archer also has plans to launch commercial service in the Middle East in 2026.

Analyst Ratings and Insider Activity

The consensus analyst rating on ACHR is “Moderate Buy,” with an average price target of $12.17 — well above where the stock is currently trading.

Needham has a buy rating with a $10 target. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both carry neutral ratings, with targets of $11 and $8 respectively. Weiss Ratings holds a sell.

On the insider side, CTO Thomas Paul Muniz sold 125,000 shares on January 2 at an average of $8.00, totalling $1 million. He still holds 1,272,129 shares. Insiders overall own 7.65% of the company, with institutional investors holding 59.34%.

The stock has a 12-month low of $5.48 and a high of $14.62. Coming into this week, ACHR was down 20% over the past year — though still up more than 100% from its October 2024 lows following optimism around the regulatory environment under the second Trump administration.

The stock’s beta sits at 3.10, which means it moves — a lot.

The market cap stands at approximately $4.90 billion.

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