Micron (MU) Stock: Why Wall Street Is Watching One Number on Wednesday

TLDR

• Micron reports Q2 FY26 earnings on March 18, with Wall Street expecting revenue of ~$19.1B, up 137% year over year
• EPS is forecast at $8.60–$8.74, representing roughly 460% year-over-year growth
• HBM supply is already sold out for all of calendar year 2026, with Micron able to meet only 50%–66% of key customer demand
• Micron completed the purchase of a chip plant in Taiwan, with DRAM and HBM production expected to begin in fiscal 2028
• Analysts at Wedbush and Wells Fargo raised price targets to $500 and $470 respectively, with a consensus Strong Buy from 27 analysts

Micron Technology’s fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report is due Wednesday, March 18. Wall Street is watching closely, and the numbers expected are eye-catching.

Micron Technology, Inc., MU

Analysts forecast revenue of around $19.1 billion for the quarter, a jump of roughly 137% compared to the same period last year. Earnings per share are projected at $8.60 to $8.74 — more than five times what Micron earned in Q2 FY25.

The driver behind these numbers is AI. Data centers running large language models need massive amounts of memory, and that’s pushing demand for both DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) higher than the industry can currently supply.

Micron has said it can only meet 50% to two-thirds of memory requirements from several of its key customers. That’s not a complaint — it’s a pricing lever.

Supply Can’t Keep Up

Building new semiconductor fabs takes years. Micron doesn’t expect meaningful new capacity to come online until 2027 at the earliest. In the meantime, the company has already sold out its entire HBM supply for calendar year 2026.

This tight supply-demand gap is what analysts are really focused on ahead of Wednesday’s print. If Micron’s management signals that this imbalance continues through 2026 and into 2027, the pricing power story stays intact.

Options traders are pricing in a move of around 10.6% in either direction following the earnings release, based on at-the-money straddle pricing.

The stock is already up about 42% year to date, trading around $425.96 at last check.

Analysts Raise Targets

Wedbush analyst Matthew Bryson bumped his price target on MU to $500 from $320, keeping an Outperform rating. He noted that the earnings outlook continues to improve while the stock still trades below typical peak valuations for memory companies.

Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers also reiterated a Buy and lifted his target to $470 from $410. Rakers sees peak EPS reaching $50–$60 per share, with longer-term earnings power of $30–$40. He also expects Micron to address questions around HBM4 competition tied to Nvidia’s upcoming Rubin GPU cycle.

Among 27 Wall Street analysts tracked, the consensus is a Strong Buy — 26 Buys and one Hold. The average price target sits at $448.07, implying about 5% upside from current levels.

On the expansion front, Micron completed the acquisition of the P5 chip plant from Powerchip Semiconductor in Tongluo, Taiwan. The facility has around 300,000 square feet of cleanroom space. Micron plans to upgrade it for DRAM and HBM production, with first shipments targeted for fiscal 2028.

The deal was originally announced in January 2026.

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