More than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply has not moved in 12 months, a structural feature that will shape how the market absorbs demand into year-end.
Per Bitbo, roughly 61% of coins have been dormant for over a year, with the deepest cohort, over ten years, at roughly 17%.
The latest HODL Waves split shows 7–10 years near 8%, 5–7 years near 5%, 3–5 years near 13%, 2–3 years near 7%, 1–2 years near 11.5%, 6–12 months near 13%, 3–6 months near 7.5%, 1–3 months near 9.5%, and under one month near 5%.
Bitcoin HODL waves (source: Bitbo)These bands measure supply by last on-chain movement, not a change in total supply, and are sensitive to binning and exchange tagging choices across providers.
Realized-Cap HODL Waves, which weight bands by cost basis rather than coin count, can reveal the economic weight of holders, a valuable lens for spotting whether rallies rely on thin, short-term float or broader balance-sheet conviction.
The supply profile intersects with a demand backdrop shaped by regulated funds and macro policy. In the week ended Oct. 4, crypto exchange-traded products saw net inflows of about $5.95 billion, led by U.S. spot products.
At a price of about $125,000 per Bitcoin, a $5.95 billion week implies absorption of roughly 47,600 BTC, equal to around 0.24% of circulating supply, if such a pace persisted for a full week.
This framing does not assume constant inflows; it sets a baseline against the size and behavior of shorter-age cohorts, which historically provide more of the marginal sell side.
Short-age supply remains meaningful.
The combination of 1–3 months, 3–6 months, and 6–12 months accounts for roughly 30 to 35 percent of supply, based on the latest reading. That is the band mix most sensitive to price and macro shifts over a quarter.
These cohorts tend to realize gains into strength while the group two years and older usually rotates more slowly. One cross-check for whether older holders are reviving is Coin-Days Destroyed.
Per Bitbo, tracking the 90-day moving average of CDD alongside price helps identify revival spikes from long-held coins versus quiet accumulation periods where coin age continues to build.
A steady or falling CDD trend into higher prices implies modest distribution from long-term holders, while a sharp CDD rise alongside volatility often marks aging coins hitting the market.
Macro policy may influence the mix of flows and the disposition of mid-age holders through year-end. The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in September, and its Summary of Economic Projections pointed to additional easing in 2025, subject to inflation outcomes.
The median path implies a lower policy rate next year.
On the inflation side, U.S. consumer prices rose 2.9 percent year over year in August.
The disinflation trend remains uneven but has eased from earlier peaks. A path of moderating inflation and gradual policy easing can compress real yields at the margin, a mix that has historically supported risk appetite, including flows into Bitcoin-linked products, although the causal chain is probabilistic rather than deterministic.
The supply-demand math can be framed with simple scenarios that map fund flows against available float from shorter-age bands. Using the same price anchor for comparability, each billion dollars of net inflow at $125,000 per BTC absorbs about 8,000 BTC.
A weekly range of $0.5 to 2.0 billion implies 4,000 to 16,000 BTC per week, which can be compared to plausible monthly rotation rates from the 1–12 month cohorts.
If 30 percent of supply sits in these bands, a 5 percent monthly rotation would release about 0.05 × 0.30 × 19.7 million, or roughly 295,500 BTC over a month, which averages near 73,900 BTC per week.
That figure would overwhelm a $0.5 to 2.0 billion inflow pace, yet rotation is rarely uniform and often clustered around price events and derivatives positioning.
If rotation drops to 1 percent per month, the weekly release would be near 14,800 BTC, a scale that a $2 billion inflow week could fully offset.
The modeling purpose is not to fix a forecast but to define thresholds at which demand either absorbs or is absorbed by the near-term supply stack.
| HODL band | Approx. share |
|---|---|
| >10 years | ~17% |
| 7–10 years | ~8% |
| 5–7 years | ~5% |
| 3–5 years | ~13% |
| 2–3 years | ~7% |
| 1–2 years | ~11.5% |
| 6–12 months | ~13% |
| 3–6 months | ~7.5% |
| 1–3 months | ~9.5% |
| <1 month | ~5% |
A separate lens is the Realized-Cap HODL Waves, which track the share of realized value held by age bands. A rising share for older bands by realized value implies a growing economic footprint of long-term holders.
Into year-end, if CDD remains contained and Realized-Cap HODL Waves continue to lean older, rallies may rely less on fresh capital than on a thinner offered side from holders with higher cost-basis discipline.
Conversely, if CDD climbs while ETP flows slow, mid-age bands would expand as revived coins reset their age, a pattern often seen after all-time highs as the market digests gains.
| Scenario | Assumed net ETP flow, weekly | Implied BTC absorbed, weekly | Short-age rotation, monthly | Implied BTC released, weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low demand | $0.5B | ~4,000 | 5% | ~73,900 |
| Base | $1.5B | ~12,000 | 2% | ~29,600 |
| High demand | $4.0B | ~32,000 | 1% | ~14,800 |
Exchange balances remain a watched metric in this context.
According to multiple public dashboards, balances held on centralized exchanges sit near multi-year lows, though this metric has caveats. Walleting practices, off-exchange settlement, and internalization can lower on-exchange counts without changing marketable float.
Exchange tagging is imperfect and should be paired with other signals, including order book depth, futures basis, and on-chain age flows, before concluding a supply shock.
Price context frames these flows and bands but does not alter the accounting.
Bitcoin entered price discovery this week, overlapping with the strong fund-flow week. Whether such inflows persist will depend on risk appetite and policy expectations.
If inflation readings hold near the recent 2.9 percent yearly pace and policy guidance trends toward gradual easing, there is room for continued allocations from vehicles that previously did not hold Bitcoin.
If inflation reaccelerates or policy guidance turns restrictive, the shorter-age bands could supply more inventory as traders derisk, a shift that would first appear in CDD and the 1–3 month share.
The task over the next several weeks is to track three elements in tandem.
First, weekly ETP net flows relative to the 8,000 BTC per one billion dollars absorption yardstick, with the CoinShares tallies as a baseline.
Second, CDD’s 90-day trend and any revival bursts against the price.
Third, the tilt of HODL Waves on both a coin-count and realized-value basis.
Together, these series describe whether the market is drawing from a deep, patient base or a nearer-term inventory that turns over faster. This will determine how any further demand interacts with a supply stack that has aged markedly into October.
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Source: https://cryptoslate.com/over-61-of-btc-hasnt-moved-in-a-year-what-it-means-for-bitcoin-price/
