XRP price analysis: Bulls eye $3 recovery as SEC ETF ruling nears, Ripple inks Absa bank deal

XRP trades near $2.5 after a sharp weekly decline as traders await exchange-traded fund decisions and Ripple’s inks a new partnership with Absa Bank.

XRP was trading at $2.42 at press time, down 3.6% over the last day and 15% over the last week. The token has retraced about 33% from its peak of $3.65 in July. Over the past week, it has moved within a range of $2.32–$2.83 as traders brace for major catalysts.

The 24-hour trading volume has decreased by 27% to $5.1 billion. According to CoinGlass data, open interest fell 2.2% to $4.04 billion and derivatives volume decreased 36.5% to $6.56 billion, indicating declining leverage and a short-term pause in speculative momentum.

XRP ETF deadlines boost sentiment

The coming days could define XRP’s (XRP) price direction. Between Oct. 18–25, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission faces clustered deadlines for several spot XRP ETF applications, including Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary, WisdomTree, and CoinShares, with Franklin Templeton’s review extended to Nov. 14.

The Rex-Osprey XRPR ETF, launched on Sept. 18, logged $37.7 million in first-day volume on Cboe, showing strong investor demand. With Ripple’s clear regulatory standing following its 2025 court victory, analysts predict that there will be at least one approval by year’s end.

However, the precise timeline is uncertain due to the SEC’s workflow being slowed by a partial U.S. government shutdown that began on Oct. 1.

Ripple’s Africa expansion with Absa Bank

Announced on Oct. 15, Ripple’s new partnership with Absa Bank represents its first significant custody client in Africa. Absa, which oversees $119 billion in assets in 12 African nations, will use Ripple’s self-custodial platform to securely store digital assets and Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin. 

The partnership extends Ripple’s network to five continents and improves institutional access to tokenized assets and On-Demand Liquidity.

XRP price technical analysis

The technical structure of XRP points to a cautious phase. The price has confirmed short-term bearish pressure by falling below all of the major moving averages (10–200-day). The Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting elevated volatility, while XRP trades near the lower band around $2.29, acting as immediate support.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. The MACD and momentum continue to flash mild sell signals, and the relative strength index at 33.9 indicates near-oversold conditions. The commodity channel index, however, hints at a potential rebound if buying volume returns.

If bulls defend $2.30–$2.40, XRP could retest resistance around $2.75–$2.85, coinciding with the 20-day SMA. A break above this range could pave the way to $3.00–$3.20, particularly if ETF optimism increases. In contrast, if current support is not maintained, the 30-day downtrend may be extended with a retest of $2.00–$2.10.