The post Bitcoin wobbles into FOMC week with major warnings – Details appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The odds are firmly pointing to a rate cut: markets are pricing in an 87.2% chance of a drop to 3.50%-3.75%, with just 12.8% expecting no change. Source: CME FedWatch But if the last two cuts were any guide, traders should stay cautious. Ahead of the September and October decisions, BTC saw small pre-FOMC rallies, a brief post-announcement bounce, and then a slide. The setup this time looks similar. Source: CryptoQuant Exchange reserves have fallen from around 2.95M BTC in August to nearly 2.76M BTC now, so there’s weaker spot demand. Source: Cryptoquant Funding rates have also flipped negative at times, with shaky leverage. With major U.S. data packed through Thursday, volatility may hit before the Fed even speaks. And that’s where the recent macro print became important. As Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto, “The data shows inflation remains stable and is not reaccelerating — precisely the backdrop markets need to maintain confidence in continued Fed easing.” Here’s more… Global central bank liquidity has barely moved since 2022, stuck between $28 trillion and $30 trillion. This is the same range that previously kept Bitcoin in slow, sideways accumulation phases rather than breakout rallies. Source: Alphractal Even the yearly change in liquidity has something we already know: when it turns negative, those periods have been some of the best long-term accumulation zones for BTC. Source: Alphractal But the most surprising development sits outside the U.S. entirely. Source: Alphractal Among major central banks, the Reserve Bank of India now shows the strongest correlation with Bitcoin’s price. BTC is reacting to global liquidity shifts, not just the Fed. This meets with the flow of sidelined capital. As Mena noted, “With over $10 trillion parked in money-market funds and fixed-income ETFs, declining yields make these vehicles structurally less attractive and… The post Bitcoin wobbles into FOMC week with major warnings – Details appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The odds are firmly pointing to a rate cut: markets are pricing in an 87.2% chance of a drop to 3.50%-3.75%, with just 12.8% expecting no change. Source: CME FedWatch But if the last two cuts were any guide, traders should stay cautious. Ahead of the September and October decisions, BTC saw small pre-FOMC rallies, a brief post-announcement bounce, and then a slide. The setup this time looks similar. Source: CryptoQuant Exchange reserves have fallen from around 2.95M BTC in August to nearly 2.76M BTC now, so there’s weaker spot demand. Source: Cryptoquant Funding rates have also flipped negative at times, with shaky leverage. With major U.S. data packed through Thursday, volatility may hit before the Fed even speaks. And that’s where the recent macro print became important. As Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21Shares, told AMBCrypto, “The data shows inflation remains stable and is not reaccelerating — precisely the backdrop markets need to maintain confidence in continued Fed easing.” Here’s more… Global central bank liquidity has barely moved since 2022, stuck between $28 trillion and $30 trillion. This is the same range that previously kept Bitcoin in slow, sideways accumulation phases rather than breakout rallies. Source: Alphractal Even the yearly change in liquidity has something we already know: when it turns negative, those periods have been some of the best long-term accumulation zones for BTC. Source: Alphractal But the most surprising development sits outside the U.S. entirely. Source: Alphractal Among major central banks, the Reserve Bank of India now shows the strongest correlation with Bitcoin’s price. BTC is reacting to global liquidity shifts, not just the Fed. This meets with the flow of sidelined capital. As Mena noted, “With over $10 trillion parked in money-market funds and fixed-income ETFs, declining yields make these vehicles structurally less attractive and…