Anti-graft drive may strain Marcos’ ties but open doors to new ones

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. risks alienating his key congressional ties as he pushes for his anti-corruption drive, which could undermine legislative priorities, but could also open doors to new alliances, political analysts said.

While Mr. Marcos still has political capital, his push to hold politicians, officials and contractors accountable in the multibillion-peso flood control scandal could accelerate its decline and threaten structural reforms.

“He still has political capital, but is no longer the expansive, almost frictionless capital he enjoyed during his first two years in office,” Ranjit Singh Rye, an OCTA Research fellow and a University of the Philippines political science professor, said in a Viber message.

“That earlier strength rested on a very large coalition — one built less on a shared reform agenda and more on accommodation, access, and patronage,” he added. “But by broadening the coalition of the willing he can still push his reforms forward.”

Mr. Marcos, who is in the second half of his six-year term, launched an anti-corruption drive in August that includes an independent investigation and legislative efforts to curb conditions that allow graft to thrive, such as laws against entrenched political dynasties and measures to make government spending accountable.

The corruption scandal has rocked the Marcos administration, with several top officials accused of involvement in a kickback scheme. Among those implicated are close allies, including his cousin Leyte Rep. Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez, who served as House speaker until his replacement in September. Several of Mr. Marcos’ Cabinet secretaries have also been tagged, including his former executive secretary and Budget secretary.

“There is a real risk of alienating political families and regional blocs,” Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said in a Facebook Messenger chat. “Philippine coalitions are not ideological alliances. They are territorial and transaction arrangements built on expectations of stability.”

Public office in the Philippines has often been treated like heirlooms, being passed down from parents to children and even grandchildren that has entrenched families in the political system across generations and regions.

“There is a real risk that such efforts could alienate key allies, particularly political families and dynasties with entrenched interests in sectors that are highly prone to graft and corruption,” Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook chat. “This risk is exacerbated by the combination of weak institutions and powerful private actors who operate through political dynasties to influence government processes.”

Mr. Tapia said the President should not disregard his political alliances for the sake of advancing his anti-corruption agenda, as it could undermine his ability to push for priority legislation.

“Coalition stability allows a president to govern in the present,” he said. “Pursuing accountability without regard for political realities risks paralysis.”

The Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council is pushing a package of bills positioned as a roadmap to attract investments and modernize institutions. The list includes a proposed general tax amnesty, amendments to the Bank Deposit Secrecy Law and Anti-Money Laundering Act and fresh levies such as an excise tax on single-use plastics.

Other legislative priorities also target a fast-growing digital economy, including proposals on digital payments, tighter online gambling regulations, and the use of artificial intelligence in elections.

POTENTIAL ALLIES
Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at the De La Salle University, said while Mr. Marcos’ graft-busting agenda may strain alliances, “it might be offset by the entry of new possible allies from the liberal camp tied with the weight of the anti-corruption campaign on public opinion.”

“All these depend on how serious Marcos, Jr. is in making anti-corruption as one of his primary legacies even at the expense of his allies,” he added.

Mr. Aguirre said the Marcos administration may be limiting its anti-graft efforts to politicians who are not closely aligned with him to help retain his political capital.

Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro and Executive Secretary Ralph G. Recto did not immediately reply to a Viber message.

“The administration only appeared to pursue the case more aggressively against Zaldy Co after he publicly made statements implicating President Marcos himself in the controversy,” Mr. Aguirre observed, referring to the former congressman who previously headed the House Appropriations Committee.

Still, he appears to be pressing ahead with his anti-graft measures, which could draw other political forces beyond the usual politicians, he added.

“These initiatives can be understood as efforts to appease reformist and progressive forces, whose support is crucial for the Marcos administration in maintaining political stability and legitimacy through the remainder of his term,” said Mr. Aguirre.

Mr. Marcos’ ability to shepherd a coalition through the first half of his six-year term would be crucial in defining investor confidence in the country, Mr. Tapia said.

“Investors are unsettled by unpredictability,” he said. “Coalition instability becomes a problem when it disrupts budgets, delays legislation or reverses policy signals.

Mr. Rye said Mr. Marcos should move beyond traditional political allies to help bolster his political capital. “By mobilizing civil society, the private sector, and other reform-minded constituencies, Marcos can shift from elite-based bargaining to public-backed reform politics.”

“The path forward is to broaden the coalition beyond Congress,” he said. “If Congress was once his shield, the people must now become his sword.”