XRP Supply Shock Claims Disputed as Exchanges Hold Nearly 16 Billion

TLDR

• XRP Ledger validator Vet confirms exchanges still hold nearly 16B XRP.
• Viral 1.5B XRP supply shock claim is refuted by on-chain data.
• XRP Ledger order books are fast and elastic, says validator Vet.
• Analyst says ETF-driven supply shifts are gradual, not shocks.

A top XRP Ledger validator has dismissed viral claims of a looming XRP supply shock, stating that exchange balances remain strong with nearly 16 billion XRP available. As speculation spreads about ETFs and institutional accumulation draining liquidity, on-chain data tells a different story. The validator argues that the XRP market remains highly liquid and responsive, making any suggestion of an immediate supply shortage inaccurate and unsupported by verifiable evidence.

Supply Shock Claims Disputed by XRP Validator

A recent viral post claimed XRP exchange balances had fallen to 1.5 billion, suggesting an approaching supply shock in 2026. The post linked the expected shock to ETF activity and potential regulatory developments like the Clarity Act.

However, a validator on the XRP Ledger, known as Vet, publicly rejected this claim. He stated that current data shows exchanges collectively hold nearly 16 billion XRP. Vet described the market as too elastic and liquid for a genuine supply shock to form under current conditions.

“Plenty for anyone to get some,” Vet said, referencing the deep liquidity visible on major centralized exchanges.

Exchange Data and Dynamic Liquidity Structure

Vet pointed to on-chain data to support his claims. He noted that XRP is rapidly transferable and that the network allows near-instant movement of tokens between private wallets and exchanges. This functionality creates dynamic order books where supply can increase or decrease quickly based on market conditions.

“XRP listed on order books for sale is dynamic… it can thicken or dry out in seconds, back and forth,” Vet wrote on social media. According to him, the order book structure on XRP exchanges is designed to respond instantly to shifts in demand.

Leonidas Hadjiloizou, an independent XRP researcher, also questioned the viral claim. He stated that anyone can verify exchange wallet balances through XRPscan and confirmed more than 15 billion XRP is still on exchanges.

ETF Holdings and Escrow Not Causing Immediate Imbalance

Concerns over institutional accumulation and the launch of spot ETFs in the United States have stirred debates around supply. Some traders argue that ETFs and custody wallets are slowly locking up XRP supply, reducing availability for retail trading.

Vet acknowledged that ETFs may be receiving XRP through Ripple’s operational accounts, as per company disclosures. However, he emphasized that this does not amount to a supply shock unless there is an immediate shortage on exchanges.

He also highlighted that exchange balances fluctuate based on price and trading activity. The data, he said, should be seen as a conservative estimate and may even understate true holdings. For example, South Korean exchange Upbit holds around 2 billion XRP across four wallets, according to Vet.

Debate Within the XRP Community Continues

The discussion over XRP’s available supply and liquidity has sparked disagreement among community members. Market commentator Zach Rector questioned the accuracy of wallet identification, while Dman Trader pointed to potential tightening from monthly escrow releases and ETF accumulation.

Vet responded that while such trends exist, they do not create immediate constraints. He argued that only rapid depletion of available supply would indicate a true supply shock, which the current data does not show.

With XRP transactions settling in seconds and billions in reserve both on exchanges and Ripple’s accounts, validators and analysts maintain that XRP remains liquid enough to meet ongoing demand

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