Bitcoin prices rise: Are BTC ETF inflows setting up a $100K move?

Bitcoin [BTC] has started the week on a bullish footing, breaking above the $90,000 region for the first time since the 12th of December and holding this level for four consecutive days.

This sustained move suggests strengthening demand and improving price stability at higher levels.

Market dynamics continue to skew in favor of the bulls, particularly as Bitcoin steadily closes the gap on losses previously held by short-term holders. This shift reflects improving sentiment and a gradual recovery in short-term positioning.

Short-term holder losses continue to narrow

The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH NUPL), an indicator used to measure the proportion of Bitcoin held by short-term investors that is in profit or loss, has continued to compress.

This trend indicates that losses among short-term holders are shrinking as the price recovers.

Bitcoin’s STH NUPL is now approaching the zero mark, suggesting that most short-term holders are nearing breakeven as Bitcoin trades around $93,450 at press time.

Data from Alphractal shows that the zero level aligns with a Bitcoin price of roughly $99,000. This zone marks a critical breakeven point for short‑term holders. However, it does not automatically confirm a bullish continuation.

For that to happen, the price must move decisively above this level. In addition, it needs to sustain strength as it approaches the $100,000 region.

Only then would the outlook shift toward a more convincing bullish trend.

Alphractal noted,

With Bitcoin currently around $5,500 away from this threshold, the focus remains on whether bulls will step in with enough conviction to push the price beyond the zero mark.

A shift in short‑term holder sentiment can only be confirmed once this condition is met.

Investors return to accumulation

Buying activity has picked up among two major investor cohorts: institutional clients and retail spot investors.

Institutional investors began the week on a notably strong note, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording a combined net inflow of $452.4 million across two trading days between the 5th and the 6th of January.

Most of this activity occurred on the first day, with $697.25 million worth of Bitcoin added to institutional portfolios. This came after consecutive sell‑offs totaling $1.11 billion, signaling a clear shift back toward accumulation.

The spot market reflects a similar pattern. After four consecutive days of selling between the 2nd and the 5th of January, which saw $373.5 million worth of Bitcoin exit the market, buyers have returned with renewed interest.

Spot Exchange Netflow data, which tracks the movement of Bitcoin in and out of exchanges, shows that $481.76 million worth of BTC has been withdrawn from exchanges into private wallets.

This behavior is widely associated with long-term holding strategies and is considered a positive signal, as it reduces available supply on centralized exchanges.

Sustained buying pressure from both spot investors and institutional clients would play a critical role in supporting further upside and reinforcing Bitcoin’s positive price structure.

Global liquidity adds macro support

Beyond on-chain and investor behavior, macro liquidity conditions are also beginning to align. M2 Money Supply Global has continued to rise, improving the broader liquidity backdrop for risk assets.

M2 represents the amount of money readily available for deployment into the economy or that can be quickly converted for spending and investment.

Historically, rising M2 levels have supported assets such as Bitcoin, as they signal increased liquidity and potential capital inflows.

However, this effect is not immediate. It often takes several months for an expansion of the money supply to translate into higher asset prices. While the impact of rising M2 has yet to fully materialize, the broader direction remains supportive.

If current trends persist, Bitcoin could continue to close the gap between its current price level and the STH NUPL breakeven zone, which is near $99,000.

Improving short-term holder positioning, renewed institutional inflows, growing spot demand, and expanding global liquidity collectively strengthen the case for further upside in the near to medium term.

Final Thoughts

• Short-term holders are nearing breakeven on the charts, a development that could strengthen market confidence in Bitcoin.
• Institutional clients and retail investors are returning to the market, buying Bitcoin after many days of sustained selling pressure.