NG debt inches up to record-high P17.65T

THE PHILIPPINES’ total outstanding debt inched up to a fresh high of P17.65 trillion as of end-November, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) said.

Latest data from the Treasury showed that the National Government’s (NG) outstanding debt went up by 0.49% to P17.65 trillion in November from P17.56 trillion at end-October 2025.

The debt level is already 1.7% above the projected year-end level of P17.36 trillion.

November also marked the fifth month in a row that the end-2025 debt projection was breached.

Year on year, NG debt jumped by 9.94% from P16.05 trillion at the end of November 2024.

“The month-on-month increase was underpinned by the net issuance of domestic and external debt, which was partly offset by significantly lower valuations of foreign currency-denominated obligations due to the peso’s appreciation,” the BTr said in a statement on Wednesday.

The peso appreciated against the US dollar from P58.771 at the end of October to P58.729 at the end of November 2025.

NG debt is the total amount owed by the Philippine government to creditors, including international financial institutions, development partner countries, banks, global bondholders, and other investors.

In November, the bulk or 68.66% of the debt stock came from domestic sources, while the rest came from external sources.

The BTr said it continues to borrow mainly from domestic creditors and in local currency to keep debt levels “sustainable.”

“This is because peso obligations do not fluctuate with foreign exchange rates and the payment of interest redounds to the benefit of Filipino investors, further boosting domestic income,” it said.

Domestic debt inched up by 0.6% to P12.12 trillion as of end-November from P12.05 trillion as of end-October. This is mainly composed of government securities.

At end-November, debt was already 0.6% higher than the P12.04-trillion year-end domestic debt projection.

“This (increase) was driven by the P71.85 billion in net issuance of government securities, despite a P0.12-billion reduction in peso valuation on retail dollar bonds,” the BTr said.

Since the start of 2025, domestic debt jumped by 10.86% or P1.19 trillion. Of this, P1.18 trillion came from fresh issuances and P2.52 billion “was caused by the weakening of the peso from its level at the end of 2024.”

Year on year, domestic debt rose by 10.95% from P10.92 trillion recorded in November 2024.

Meanwhile, external debt stood at P5.53 trillion as of end-November, up 0.26% from P5.52 trillion in the previous month. This also exceeded the P5.32-trillion external debt projection by 4.07%.

“This is due to the P22.84 billion in net loan availment for the month, which was offset by the P8.73 billion in downward valuation adjustments caused by favorable foreign exchange movements,” the Treasury said.

The BTr noted that the stronger peso against the US dollar trimmed foreign currency debt valuation by P3.94 billion. At the same time, third-currency movements, such as the Japanese yen and the euro, contributed another P4.79 billion to the valuation cut.

Year on year, foreign debt climbed by 7.81% from P5.13 trillion in 2024.

Foreign debt was composed mainly of P2.82 trillion in global bonds and P2.71 trillion in loans.

External debt securities totaled P2.39 trillion in US dollar bonds, P258.77 billion in euro bonds, P58.73 billion in Islamic certificates, P57.01 billion in Japanese yen bonds, and P54.77 billion in peso global bonds.

“The NG’s external financing operations remained prudent, measured, and anchored on long-term debt sustainability considerations,” the BTr said.

“External borrowings continue to be largely concessional and program-based, offering very long maturity terms and relatively lower interest costs, thereby supporting a cost-effective and resilient debt profile.”

Since the start of the year, NG external debt jumped by 8.01% or P410.04 billion.

“Of the total, P276 billion was due to new loans and bonds, while P134.04 billion was net adjustments to valuation linked to peso depreciation against foreign currencies in the first eleven months of 2025,” it added.

For November, NG-guaranteed obligations increased by 3.38% to P356.04 billion from the end-October level of P344.41 billion.

The BTr attributed the monthly increase to the net availment of domestic guarantees by the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp., amounting to P12.71 billion.

However, external guaranteed repayments and favorable exchange rate movements tempered the increase by P0.42 billion and P0.66 billion, respectively, it added.

Year on year, NG-guaranteed obligations fell by 15.64% from P422.03 billion.

WAKE-UP CALL

Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the record-high debt is a “wake-up call.”

“The challenge now is balancing fiscal discipline with growth,” he said in a Viber message.

Mr. Ravelas also urged the government to accelerate infrastructure and investment projects that generate jobs and revenue, while keeping borrowing focused on productive spending.

“Otherwise, higher debt means higher interest costs — and less room to maneuver,” he said.

Meanwhile, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said that the higher debt stock in November partly reflected new government securities issued to cover the wider fiscal gap in recent months.

The budget deficit swelled to P1.26 trillion as of end-November from the P1.18-billion deficit in the same period in 2024.

“The weaker peso exchange rate vs. the US dollar over the past 3.5 years by about 16% effectively increased the peso equivalent of the outstanding National Government external debts when converted to pesos,” he said in a Viber message.

Asked if the government would be able to bring down debt to P17.36-trillion programmed level, he said: “Already beyond the target, with possible budget deficits still in December 2025.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Ravelas said a weaker peso and failure to address the country’s issues would inflate the debt in 2026.

NG debt as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) went up to 63.1% at end-September from 60.1% in the same period last year. This is above the 60% threshold deemed sustainable for developing countries.

The Department of Finance expects the NG debt-to-GDP ratio to ease to 61.3% by end-2025 and eventually fall to 58% by 2030. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante