AVAX January 16, 2026: Short-Term Correction in the Uptrend and Critical Levels

Avalanche (AVAX) is stabilizing at the $13.75 level with a short-term correction while maintaining its upward trend. Holding just above the EMA20 on the daily chart shows that buyers still hold control, while the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal and approaching resistance barriers invite investors to be cautious. In this analysis, we delve into multi-timeframe alignment and momentum dynamics to outline the market outlook.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

AVAX has pulled back to $13.75 with a 3.98% decline over the last 24 hours, yet the overall trend structure remains upward. Trading in the $13.61-14.43 range on the daily timeframe, AVAX is attracting market attention with a volume of 220.08 million dollars. Although this volume level is above recent weekly averages, it indicates that the downside momentum is limited. The Avalanche ecosystem holds a strong position in DeFi and NFT projects with its scalability-focused infrastructure; however, the general crypto market’s consolidation wave led by Bitcoin is also affecting AVAX.

In the context of the upward trend, AVAX’s current position is at a critical turning point. On the 1D chart, the price has scraped the EMA20 ($13.74) and managed to hold above it, strengthening the short-term bullish signal. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects a total of 13 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, and 3 supports/5 resistances on 1W. This confluence confirms the robustness of the market structure while increasing short-term volatility risk. Investors can access detailed data from the AVAX Spot Analysis page to optimize their positions.

Although there has been no striking news flow for AVAX recently, Avalanche’s subnet technology and institutional partnerships stand out as long-term catalysts. The quick recovery from the 24-hour low of $13.61 shows that bottom hunters are active. With Bitcoin testing resistance around $90,000 in the broader crypto market, it is narrowing the movement room for altcoins like AVAX; however, if the trend does not break, AVAX could aim for new highs.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

Support zones define the holding points for AVAX in potential pullbacks. The strongest support is at the $13.3279 level (score: 75/100), which aligns with daily pivot points and Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price pulls back here, it carries potential for a quick rebound; as high trading volume is observed in the volume profile. At a lower level, $12.8813 (score: 68/100) comes into play; this zone is aligned with the EMA50 on the weekly timeframe and coincides with past swing lows.

Looking at MTF confluence, there are an additional 3 support levels on the 1W timeframe, indicating that a break below $12.88 would only occur with strong selling pressure. Given the high scores of the supports, they can be evaluated as ideal entry zones for long positions, but stop-loss usage is always essential. Protecting these levels will be key elements in maintaining the integrity of the upward trend.

Resistance Barriers

The short-term first resistance lies at $13.7772 (score: 71/100); this barrier, positioned just above the current price, aligns with the 24-hour high (14.43). In case of a breakout, the intermediate resistance at $15.87 indicated by Supertrend will come into play. The longer-term target is $21.1148 (score: 62/100), supported by strong resistance clusters on 3D and 1W timeframes.

The distribution of resistances (total 10 resistances across 1D/3D/1W) reflects the challenges for upward movement. A close above $13.78 could accelerate momentum and open the door to the $18.71 bullish target. Investors can target these barriers by reviewing leveraged strategies via AVAX Futures Analysis, but should not ignore volatility.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is positioned at 50.90 in the neutral zone; it gives neither overbought nor oversold signals, confirming that the market is in balanced consolidation. Staying above the 50 level shows buyers maintaining a slight edge, while approaching 70 increases profit-taking risk. The alignment of daily RSI with the 3D timeframe indicates medium trend strength.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) exhibits a bullish structure; the positive histogram and MACD line above the signal line emphasize upward momentum. This signal is reinforced by the price holding above EMA20 and supports the short-term trend. However, the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal and positions $15.87 as resistance; this contradiction requires attention in short-term trades.

Overall trend strength is being tested at the lower band of the ascending channel. Bollinger Bands contraction shows volatility squeeze, while increasing volume could support an upside breakout. MTF analysis confirms that the 1W trend is still intact; this verifies that AVAX remains bullish in the big picture. The mixed signals from indicators make strategic patience essential.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

The risk/reward ratio (R/R), calculated from current levels, looks attractive. In the bullish scenario, the $18.7100 target (score:26) offers 36% return from the current price, while the bearish target of $8.5200 (score:28) carries a 38% downside risk. This balanced R/R creates trading opportunities above 1:1; however, the bearish Supertrend and resistance density limit the long bias.

In the positive scenario, a break above $13.78 could lead to $15.87, then to $18.71; in the negative, a loss of $13.33 could drop to $12.88 and trigger a trend reversal. The overall outlook is neutral-bullish: Buying pressure remains dominant as long as the upward trend does not break. Follow AVAX Spot Analysis and futures markets to manage volatility. Any breakdown in market structure necessitates a cautious approach.

In the long term, AVAX’s ecosystem growth will support the price; however, macro risks (Fed policies, regulations) should not be ignored. Balanced portfolio management and your own research are the keys to success.