CHZ Technical Analysis Feb 24

CHZ is maintaining its downtrend structure (LH/LL) and consolidating around $0.03. For a structure break (BOS), a close above $0.0368 is required; otherwise, the risk of continuation towards $0.0267 is high.

Market Structure Overview

CHZ’s current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. In recent periods, lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) formation is observed; for example, the last swing high at $0.0368 was rejected, and the price appears ready to drop below the $0.0335 swing low. Current price at $0.03 level, with 24-hour change +%1.61, but overall structure bearish. Supertrend giving bearish signal and resistance strong at $0.04. Price not above EMA20 ($0.04), reinforcing short-term bearish structure. RSI at 33.94 near oversold region but momentum weak, MACD confirming selling pressure with negative histogram. Multi-timeframe (MTF) structure shows 1D (3S/2R), 3D (2S/2R), and 1W (3S/4R) levels; weekly resistance weight supports the decline. Market structure analysis is based on the trend being bullish with higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL), bearish with lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL). In CHZ, LH/LL is dominant, meaning we are moving within a descending channel.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL structure must form. There is a slight recovery from the $0.0335 swing low in the recent period (+%1.61), but this is a local bounce. Real bullish signal comes with breaking the $0.0347 resistance (score 77/100) and testing $0.0368. Close above EMA20 ($0.04) could initiate short-term HL structure. However, RSI at 33.94 is low and MACD bearish; momentum insufficient. Bullish continuation target $0.0500 (score 30/100) is distant and low probability.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend strong: Last LH at $0.0347, drop below previous LL $0.0335 expected. $0.0310 and $0.0267 swing lows (score 61/100) could be tested. Bearish breakdown target $0.0164. 24h range $0.03-$0.04, rejection at upper band confirms LH. In MTF, 1W 4R/3S, dominance strengthens bearish structure. For change of character (CHoCH), bullish BOS needed; otherwise, LL continuation likely.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) confirms trend change. Bullish BOS: Impulsive close above $0.0368 swing high, breaking previous LH to initiate HL structure. This triggers $0.04 EMA and Supertrend flip. Bearish BOS: Break below $0.0335 swing low, leading to $0.0310 and deepening LL. Key levels: Resistance $0.0347 (near), $0.0368 (critical BOS). Support $0.0335 (first test), $0.0310 (second). These levels derived from swing points and MTF aligned. Without BOS, trend not invalidated; for example, bullish requires $0.0368.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Last swing high $0.0347 (score 77/100), strong resistance – price rejected here, forming LH. Previous $0.0368 (score 60/100), main BOS level. These points define the upper band of the descending channel. Breakout would be trend reversal signal; rejection entry point for sells. Swing highs aligned with Fib retracements ($0.0347, 0.618 Fib).

Recent Swing Lows

Last swing low $0.0335 (score 68/100), current support – break is bearish BOS. $0.0310 and $0.0267 (61/100), deep supports. These lows preserve LL structure. Hold offers local bounce opportunity; break activates $0.0164 target. Swing lows are stop-loss points for risk management.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC $63,719 (-%1.80), in downtrend; supports $63,407/$61,779/$60,000, resistances $64,261/$65,792/$67,737. BTC Supertrend bearish, caution for altcoins. CHZ highly correlated with BTC; if BTC stays below $64k, CHZ $0.0335 break accelerates. BTC bounce (above $65k) gives CHZ $0.0368 test opportunity, but dominance pressured. BTC decline deepens CHZ LH/LL – BTC levels critical for CHZ Spot Analysis and CHZ Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

CHZ structure LH/LL downtrend, bearish bias dominant. $0.03 consolidation could end with $0.0335 support test. Bullish invalidation: $0.0368 BOS + above EMA20. Bearish scenario: $0.0335 break, path to $0.0267. Educational note: Market structure defined by swings – monitor BOS/CHoCH. No news, pure structure focus. Attention: High volatility, MTF confirmation required. Outlook: Bearish continuation as likely, wait for BOS.