Bitcoin Rally Faces Dead-Cat Bounce Risk, Hayes Says

TLDR

• Arthur Hayes said the recent Bitcoin rally could be a dead-cat bounce within a broader bear market cycle.
• Hayes linked Bitcoin’s price pattern to the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF and the Nasdaq-100 index.
• Bitcoin rebounded from $63,500 to $74,123 before concerns about a possible bull trap emerged.
• On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales and sharks increased accumulation during the recent price rebound.
• Bitcoin Open Interest rose from $44 billion to $49.8 billion in two days, reflecting renewed derivatives activity.

Bitcoin rebounded from $63,500 to $74,123, yet a market expert questioned the strength of the move. Arthur Hayes linked the recovery to patterns seen in major US tech indexes. He stated that the Bitcoin rally could mark a temporary bounce within a broader bear phase.

Bitcoin Rally Mirrors Tech Index Patterns

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, shared his assessment on X on March 4, 2026. He stated that Bitcoin has tracked a fractal pattern similar to US SaaS-focused indexes over the past year. He based his view on Bitcoin’s correlation with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF and the Nasdaq-100 index.

Hayes argued that these correlations suggest a possible bull trap in the current structure. He said, “It could be a dead cat bounce. We aren’t in the clear yet. Be patient.” He maintained that Bitcoin remains in a macro bear market that began after the October 11, 2025 crash.

The October 2025 crypto crash erased over $19 billion from leveraged traders. Since then, Bitcoin has moved within a range similar to the 2022 bear cycle. Hayes pointed to that backdrop while outlining the risks tied to the present rebound.

Market participants have discussed the possibility of another capitulation before a clear bottom forms. Hayes reiterated that buyers should wait for confirmation of trend reversal. His comments followed the recent price surge toward $74,123.

On-Chain Data and Derivatives Signal Shift

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales and sharks have accumulated coins during the rebound. Large holders increased their positions as the price moved higher. This accumulation suggests that some major participants anticipate further upside.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s Open Interest rose from $44 billion to about $49.8 billion within two days. The increase indicates renewed capital inflow into derivatives and futures markets. Funding rates also turned positive as traders leaned toward long positions.

Positive funding rates show that long traders pay premiums to hold positions. This shift reflects growing bullish sentiment in derivatives markets. However, Hayes maintained that structural risks remain despite these signals.

Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, offered a technical perspective. He stated that Bitcoin could strengthen during the ongoing Middle East crisis. Meanwhile, some market participants argue that capital rotation from gold may support Bitcoin after gold’s recent parabolic rally.

US regulatory clarity has also shaped market sentiment in recent weeks. Some traders believe this environment could attract fresh capital into crypto markets. Hayes’ latest statement on March 4, 2026, placed focus back on the risk of another capitulation.

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