Will TRUMP, BONK Meme Coin ETF Approvals Revive Price Momentum?

TRUMP and BONK meme coin positioned themselves for potential price momentum as their ETF applications clear the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) 75-day review period on Sept. 12.

The two Solana-based tokens rank among the largest memecoins by market capitalization on the blockchain and filed through Rex-Osprey for exchange-traded fund (ETF) status.

Both crypto ETF follow the debut of the first meme coin ETF in the US. DOJE, the Dogecoin ETF by Rex-Osprey, starts trading today on NYSE.

BONK Leads Weekly Performance Despite Monthly Decline

BONK demonstrated a strong weekly performance. It achieved 17.4% gains and surpassing the 9.6% average for Solana memecoins over the seven days.

The Solana meme coin sector ranked among the 25 best-performing categories out of 311 tracked by CoinGecko.

TRUMP meme coin lagged behind the sector average with 5.6% weekly gains, positioning the token to benefit more significantly from potential ETF approval.

Both coins faced monthly declines, with TRUMP meme coin down 1.5% and BONK retreating 6.7%.

The performance divergence reflected different recent trajectories for the tokens. BONK surged in July following the brief success of memecoin launchpad Bonkfun.

Despite correcting 40% from its $0.00003925 peak in mid-July, BONK maintained nearly 100% gains from pre-rally levels.

TRUMP Meme Coin Seeks Recovery from Extended Downtrend

TRUMP meme coin struggled to gain traction since its January 2025 launch. The token experienced a brief spike to $15.60 in April after President Donald Trump announced a dinner with top holders.

Yet, it resumed its downtrend and traded just 15% above its April low of $7.57.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas explained the potential impact of ETF approval on altcoins through a music industry analogy.

He stated that ETF-ization resembled adding songs to streaming services, noting it “doesn’t guarantee listens but puts your music where the vast majority of the listeners are.”

The comparison highlighted how ETF approval could expand market access for TRUMP and BONK meme coin beyond traditional cryptocurrency exchanges to institutional and retail investors through established financial platforms.

Macro and Meme coin Trenches Present Challenges

Meme coin trading activity on Solana faced headwinds that could limit ETF-driven momentum.

Blockworks data showed weekly meme coin trading volume declining gradually since Aug. 11, dropping from $8.3 billion to approximately $4.9 billion during the September 1-7 period.

The 41% decline in trading volume over four weeks reflected reduced retail interest in speculation.

Lower trading volumes typically indicate decreased market participation and could limit the sustained impact of positive catalysts like ETF approval announcements.

Additionally, the broader cryptocurrency market faced uncertainty from mixed economic data that complicated Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Producer Price Index numbers came at 2.6% on Sept. 10, below the expected 3.3%, suggesting cooling inflation pressures.

However, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data presented a mixed picture. The Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching estimates, while the headline CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.3% forecast.

Year-over-year figures met expectations, with the Core CPI at 3.1% and the headline CPI at 2.9%.

The mixed inflation data created uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut for 2025.

Markets grappled with whether the Fed would implement two cuts or execute a third reduction during the year.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advocated for aggressive Fed action during a Sept. 11 Fox Business interview.

He stated that the macro data had been “atrocious” and suggested the Fed should consider make-up cuts.

His comments temporarily boosted Polymarket odds for a 50 basis point cut to 20.8% before falling to 13.5%.

The odds’ shift favored 25 basis point cut expectations, rising from 79% to 84%. The movement suggested traders anticipated three 25 basis point cuts rather than one large 50 basis point reduction followed by more minor adjustments later.

ETF Approval Timeline Coincides with FOMC Meeting

TRUMP and BONK meme coin ETF decisions coincided with heightened macro uncertainty ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The timing could amplify price volatility for both memecoins, as broader market sentiment influenced risk asset appetite.

ETF approval would enable institutional investors to gain exposure to TRUMP and BONK without directly purchasing underlying tokens.

However, sustained momentum required resolution of macro uncertainty and continued community engagement beyond initial ETF-driven interest.