What are the chances of an Nvidia comeback this quarter?

Nvidia goes into this quarter with a lot riding on one event. The NVDA stock rallied by about 2% on Monday ahead of the company’s annual GTC developer conference.

Investors want new answers on whether the AI spending boom still has real strength and whether Nvidia still has the products to stay ahead.

CEO Jensen Huang is set to give the keynote at the event, while Nvidia stock is down about 3% so far this year, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF is up about 8% over the same period.

Once again, what we want from Nvidia is proof that big cloud companies will keep spending hard on AI hardware, that Nvidia can defend its share as rivals push in, and that the company can show a longer path into 2026 and 2027 instead of just talking about the next quarter.

Can hyperscalers keep pouring money into AI chips, servers, and related gear at the same pace seen over the past two years? That is the central question going into GTC. If spending stays strong, the case for a Nvidia rebound gets stronger. If it slows, pressure stays on the stock.

Morgan Stanley said in a preview note, “We believe that NVIDIA is due to catch up to other stocks in the supply chain, and see this as a very good entry point.”

The bank kept Nvidia as its top pick in semiconductors, and added that the GTC conference could help settle some of the debate over Nvidia’s long-term market share as Advanced Micro Devices and custom AI chips keep gaining traction.

Analysts are pushing Nvidia to spell out 2027 targets and cash plans

Wells Fargo said Nvidia’s lag versus the broader chip sector has become a frequent topic among investors.

The bank also said expectations are already high. Buy-side estimates for Nvidia’s 2027 earnings sit around $13 a share.

That number already assumes future products, such as Vera Rubin, work out. So the market is not giving Nvidia much room for weak guidance or vague language.

That is why longer-term targets matter, and we’ve got Wells Fargo saying that Nvidia rivals such as Broadcom, Marvell Technology, and AMD have already talked about multiyear outlooks, while Nvidia has usually stuck to near-term guidance.

“If NVDA puts out some firm bogey for CY27, it could be the positive catalyst needed to get the stock working,” said Wells Fargo.

Wolfe Research said investors also want clearer signals on the scale of future demand. The firm said Nvidia could give new disclosures on AI-related revenue visibility for 2026 and 2027. If that happens, and if the numbers are strong enough, it could help the stock.

There is also the balance sheet, since Nvidia showed more than $60 billion in cash in its last earnings report, as Cryptopolitan reported previously.

Wall Street models roughly $180 billion in free cash flow for 2026 and $240 billion for 2027. Those are huge figures.

Analysts track the product roadmap while Foxconn forecasts more AI growth

Bank of America expects GTC to focus on Nvidia’s future product pipeline and custom AI systems built for inference.

The bank said investors will be looking for updates that extend the roadmap through Feynman-generation GPUs, which are expected later this decade.

It also said the market will watch for comments on the rollout of the Rubin architecture, which is slated for 2027 and beyond.

Bank of America kept a buy rating on the shares and called Nvidia “a top AI pick trading at a historical low 17 times forward earnings.”

Mizuho is watching for more technical updates that could point to the next growth leg. The firm said the conference could include details on a new Rubin rack platform expected in the second half of 2026. It is also looking for updates on networking, optical interconnects, and special inference processors built to push performance much higher.

Mizuho also flagged possible discussion around quantum computing, including technology meant to connect graphics processors with quantum processors in hybrid supercomputing systems.

Outside Nvidia, Foxconn added another data point to the broader AI story. The Taiwanese company said on Monday that it expects strong revenue growth in the first quarter and for the full year, even though quarterly profit fell 2% and missed estimates.

Foxconn, which is Nvidia’s biggest server maker and Apple’s top iPhone assembler, said the profit drop was caused by a higher tax rate. That came even as fourth-quarter revenue jumped 22% on strong global demand for AI products.

The company gave its highest outlook, “strong growth,” for both first-quarter and full-year revenue, though it does not provide a numeric forecast. Chairman Young Liu said on an earnings call, “Artificial Intelligence’s strong growth was not just for this past year or two. It will last through the next two to three years.”

He also said, “Our major customers expect the size of the AI industry to hit $1 trillion over the next two to three years.”

This was the first time Foxconn gave a full-year 2026 outlook. The company said growth will be driven by strong demand for AI servers, where it expects its market share to reach 40%. Even with that forecast, Young said outside risks remain.

He said, “The biggest external challenge this year, in my view, is still the global political and economic situation, especially the war in the Middle East.”