PHL rice imports seen rising to 5.1 million MT

PHILIPPINE rice imports are projected to exceed five million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2026-2027, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.

The USDA forecast inbound rice shipments to increase nearly 16% during the period, up from the estimated 4.4 MMT in the ongoing MY 2025-2026.

The rice marketing year runs from July to June of the following year.

The anticipated rise in imports is linked to tighter stock levels carried over from the current marketing year. Rice inventories are expected to drop to 2.9 MMT, slightly below the previous year’s 2.95 MMT.

“Ending stocks are expected to decline compared to the previous marketing year due to the impact of the four-month rice import ban, which reduced stock carryover,” the USDA said.

Palay (unmilled rice) output is projected at 19.68 MMT in MY 2026-2027, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the prior year.

Despite the slight uptick in production and incremental yield gains, the USDA said steady population growth will continue to push demand for the staple grain, which will “keep overall consumption on an upward trend,” the USDA said.

It said Philippine rice consumption in MY 2026-2027 is expected to inch up to 17.65 MMT from 17.6 MMT in the current MY. — Vonn Andrei E. Villamiel