Hopes dim for swift end to Iran war after Trump speech, oil prices surge

WASHINGTON, US – Hopes for a swift end to the Middle East war faded on Thursday after US President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, disappointing investors hoping for clearer signals of a way out of the month-long conflict.

Stocks slid, oil prices surged and the dollar gained after Trump said military operations would be intensified in the next two to three weeks, offering no concrete timeline for ending hostilities that have sparked global energy supply chaos and threatened to send the world economy into a tailspin.

“I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly,” Trump said in a Wednesday evening prime-time speech.

“We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.”

Trump also suggested the war could escalate if Iranian leaders did not give in to US terms during negotiations, with strikes on Iran’s energy and oil infrastructure possible.

Iran’s armed forces responded with a warning for the United States and Israel of “more crushing, broader and more destructive” attacks in store.

Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson of the Khatam al-Anbiya central headquarters, said the war would continue until the “permanent regret and surrender” of Tehran’s enemies, according to a statement shared by Iranian media.

No reassurance on energy crisis

Benchmark Brent crude prices jumped about 6% to $107.69 per barrel, with little reassurance from Trump’s address about how the critical Strait of Hormuz energy conduit would reopen. Prices had fallen earlier on Thursday after settling lower in the previous session.

Stocks took a hit, with US index futures down 1.3% and European futures sinking over 2%. Almost all Asian bourses were in the red, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.4% and MSCI’s index of other Asia-Pacific shares down more than 2%.

“If he (Trump) was trying to inspire confidence in the markets, he has not done that,” said Russel Chesler, Head of Investments and Capital Markets at Vaneck Australia. “The key question in all investors’ minds is ‘When is this going to be over?'”

There was no let up in hostilities, with the Israeli military saying it had identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israeli territory. Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said it had intercepted four drones on Thursday and Abu Dhabi said its defence systems had intercepted a missile near an economic zone, with minor damage caused.

The US embassy in Baghdad urged its citizens to leave Iraq, warning of attacks in the capital by Iran-allied militia in the next 24-48 hours.

Thousands of people have been killed across the Middle East since February 28, when the US and Israel struck Iran, triggering Iranian attacks on Israel, US bases and the Gulf states, while opening a new front in Lebanon.

Iran also all but closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway carrying about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, pushing up energy costs and weighing on Trump’s sagging approval ratings months ahead of pivotal midterm congressional elections.

Trump in his speech mentioned what he called a short-term rise in domestic gasoline prices but said the US did not need the strait and he challenged allies who rely on oil in the region to work towards reopening it. He blamed the higher costs on Iran’s “deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers”.

The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and International Energy Agency on Wednesday warned the war was having “substantial, global and highly asymmetric” effects and said they would coordinate their response, including through potential financial support to those countries hit hardest.

Prospects elusive for near-term resolution

In an interview with Reuters earlier on Wednesday, Trump said US-Israeli strikes had ensured Iran would not obtain nuclear weapons, adding that US forces could return with “spot hits” if the threat resurfaces.

“They were right at the doorstep (of a nuclear weapon),” Trump said in his TV address, without providing evidence, touting what he said were “swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield”.

“We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders.”

Prior to Trump’s remarks, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a letter addressed to the American people that his country harbours no enmity towards ordinary Americans.

Trump said discussions were ongoing with Iranian leaders he considered less radical than previous leaders. On social media earlier Wednesday, he said Iran had requested a ceasefire but that would not be considered until its Strait of Hormuz blockade ends. Iran denied making any such request.

A senior Iranian source told Reuters on Wednesday that Tehran is demanding a guaranteed ceasefire to halt its attacks and said no talks have taken place through intermediaries on a temporary truce.

Some analysts say if Trump were to end the war without a deal, Iran could emerge more emboldened, with greater leverage.

‘Go to the strait and just take it’

Two security sources from Pakistan, which is mediating in the conflict, told Reuters that Islamabad had proposed a temporary ceasefire but had not heard back from either side.

US Vice President JD Vance communicated with Pakistani intermediaries about the Iran conflict as recently as Tuesday, according to a source briefed on the matter, making clear Trump was open to a ceasefire if certain demands were met.

Trump had suggested on Tuesday he could wind down the war soon without a deal and scaled up threats to withdraw from NATO, to which he told Reuters he planned to express his disgust for what he considers its lack of support.

European states have sought to appear unruffled, and France’s junior army minister Alice Rufo said operations by NATO in the Strait of Hormuz would be a breach of international law.

Trump did not explicitly mention NATO in his address but urged countries needing oil to buy it from the United States or to “build up some delayed courage”.

“Go to the Strait and just take it,” Trump said. “Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done, so it should be easy.” – Rappler.com