Bitcoin Price Prediction: Top 3 Scenarios as Iran War Exposes Market Fragility

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Bitcoin is trading at $66,804, up 0.58% over the past 24 hours, nursing a 47% loss from its October 2025 all-time high. The latest hit came straight from the White House.

President Trump’s April 1 address flipped the script on markets that had spent Tuesday pricing in a peace deal. Instead, he promised the U.S. would strike Iran “extremely hard” within two to three weeks.

Crypto didn’t wait for confirmation. Over $422 million in liquidations followed, with long positions taking the majority of the damage.

Bitcoin Is Not Acting Like Digital Gold Right Now

That’s the uncomfortable truth.

Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has spiked to 0.75 – its highest in months. Institutional desks aren’t treating BTC as a geopolitical hedge, but like high-beta tech, while Oil and Gold surged.

The structural picture adds another layer of concern.

According to a CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan, CME Bitcoin futures open interest has reached 18,000–20,000 BTC, concentrated in short-dated contracts.

Their moderate scenario puts BTC at $50,000. If ETF outflows and weak spot demand persist, the report extends that downside to $30,000-$20,000. In an extreme case involving prolonged Hormuz Strait closure, they don’t rule out $10,000.

Also Read: Iran’s “Reverse Indicator” Theory: Is Trump’s Truth Social the Best Signal for Crypto Traders?

Not Everyone Is Panicking

Trader Merlijn sees a different chart entirely.

“Everyone thinks this Bitcoin cycle is broken. The chart disagrees,” he wrote on X. His read: the current setup mirrors 2019 – a period that looked just as broken before Bitcoin proved the doubters wrong. $60,000 is the line that determines everything. Hold it and history repeats. Lose it and the cycle resets entirely.

Analyst Jelle agrees bears haven’t fully committed.

“Bears have not followed through yet since forcing the breakdown,” he noted, adding that a push back above $68,000 would invalidate the bearish comparison entirely.

Trader Ted is less convinced. After hitting $76,000 last month, Bitcoin has been printing lower highs and lower lows. He sees $69,000-$70,000 as a short-side liquidity zone and expects sellers to return there before any real recovery.

The Next 24 Hours Matter

Non-farm payroll data drops today. A strong number would strengthen the dollar, reduce rate cut expectations, and historically weighs on Bitcoin. It’s the next immediate test for a market that can’t seem to catch a break.

$60,000 is the line everyone is watching. The chart will answer the question markets are asking.