Running Out Of Troops, Russia Doubles Down On Hybrid War

The war in Ukraine has been costly for Russia. By some estimates over 250,000 Russian troops have died with a total of one million casualties. Russia has suffered more deaths since February 2022 than all its wars combined since World War II, including Afghanistan, Chechnya, Syria and its first conflict with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Despite these staggering losses, Russia has gained an additional 12% of Ukrainian territory since 2022 (or an additional 29,000 square miles). But this territorial gain has come at an enormous price. At this rate Russia is losing 10 troops for every square mile gained. Since late 2024, Russia has been so desperate for manpower that it has even turned to foreign fighters, including soldiers from North Korea.

Recruitment has long been a challenge for Russia’s military. New conscripts face appalling conditions, hazing, bullying, poor medical care and nutrition, and are badly trained. To avoid unrest, Moscow avoids drafting troops from major urban areas, and instead relies on poorer remote regions such as Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Yakutzia and Dagestan. As Russia’s approach to military recruitment has always been quantity of troops over quality, it is struggling to keep up with the number of men needed to fight a conventional war in Ukraine.

As a result of its failure to win the war in Ukraine through conventional tactics, Russia began using long-range drones attacks in Autumn of 2022. Since then, drone production has accelerated in Russia, with Moscow able to fire over 1,000 drones and missiles in one night. Russian drones pack a punch, responsible for a staggering 60-70% of those killed and wounded in Ukraine.

And rather than having to recruit and train troops on the battlefields, Russia is scaling up its training of drone operators. Within five years Russia will train more drone operators than infantry soldiers, with more than one million specialists trained by 2030.

Russian drones now targeting Europe

For Russia, drones have been not only a godsend in its war in Ukraine, but a tool of hybrid warfare that can be used to destabilise, subvert and disrupt the West. Russian President Vladmir Putin has been testing the waters of what Moscow can get away with, violating the airspace of several Nato members in recent weeks, including Poland, Romania and Estonia.

Russia’s first target was Poland, which had to shoot down at least 19 Russian drones that crossed its airspace on September 10^th, the first time a Nato member had downed a Russian military asset over its own territory since the war started. As a result of this provocation, Nato set up Operation Eastern Sentry to enhance air policing over Eastern Europe with more resources linked across the eastern flank with both missiles and anti-drone technology.

Then on September 19^th, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace for 12 minutes before being intercepted by Nato aircraft, something which Estonia’s Foreign Minister, Margus Tsahkna remarked was Russia’s fourth and most serious violation of his country this year.

While Russia’s drone provocations were initially limited to Eastern Europe, the three drones that flew over Copenhagen’s airport on September 23^rd (it has not been confirmed if Russia was responsible), may be a sign that Russia is taking on more risks to aggravate Western targets and inflict financial costs. Just three drones flying over the Copenhagen airport forced it to close for four hours.

As Russian drones have a range between 300 and 1000 miles, Russia has the capacity to reach Western Europe from different locations in Russia. Russian Gerberas, which were the $10,000 decoy drones that flew into Poland have a maximum range of about 370 miles while the $20,000-$50,000 Shaheds, which have been used in Ukraine, can reach more than 1,000 miles.

Earlier this month, Russia was also suspected of jamming the GPS of the plane carrying European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was flying to Bulgaria. While in midair over Eastern Europe, the plane lost navigation but was able to land safely.

As conventional tactics have been costly and not as effective, Russia is focused on hybrid warfare using a combination of drone, cyber, and psychological warfare to impose greater costs on Europe and Ukraine.

Nevertheless, even as Russia had upped its use of drone attacks on Ukraine, swarming and deploying hundreds of drones, Ukraine has proven to be skilled at intercepting. Moreover, Ukraine has shed light on Russia’s vulnerabilities, with a major attack on Moscow’s airport forcing its temporary closure in July. And just as Russia has increased its production of drones, so has Ukraine—mass-producing high-quality drones at low costs.

But while Ukraine is adept at producing drones and intercepting Russian drones (with an interception rate of 80-90%), Nato is not there yet. Nato is still using fighter jets to intercept drones, or billions of dollars of equipment to counter cheaply produced Russian Gerbera drones.

With conventional warfare draining the Russian military, Moscow has had no choice but to embrace hybrid warfare, training drone operators instead of troops. But this also means that for Nato and its partners, they can no longer rely solely on conventional defences to confront the shifting nature of modern conflict.