Stablecoin Growth and Crypto Legislation Set to Drive Fourth Quarter Returns

TLDR

• Crypto market structure legislation (CLARITY Act) and stablecoin regulations could drive Q4 returns through institutional integration
• Stablecoin growth expected to benefit Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and layer 2 networks as payment infrastructure develops
• Bitcoin ETFs are purchasing 1,755 Bitcoin daily in 2025, with analysts predicting new highs will fuel altcoin rallies
• Citi forecasts stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion by 2030, supporting up to $200 trillion in transactions
• Revenue-generating DeFi projects and tokenized assets positioned as key growth sectors for Q4

Crypto market analysts expect the fourth quarter to be driven by three main factors: regulatory clarity, stablecoin expansion, and increased institutional adoption through exchange-traded products. These trends are reshaping how digital assets integrate with traditional finance.

The CLARITY Act represents comprehensive financial services legislation that could accelerate crypto’s integration with traditional banking. Industry experts view this as a potential catalyst for deeper institutional participation in digital asset markets.

The Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of generic listing standards for commodity-based ETPs is expanding access to crypto assets for US investors. This regulatory development is expected to drive new capital inflows into the sector.

Federal Reserve rate cuts are also supporting crypto asset valuations, with the central bank reducing rates for the first time since last year in September. More cuts may follow depending on inflation trends and economic conditions.

Stablecoin regulations under the GENIUS Act, signed into law in July, are awaiting final implementation rules. Edward Carroll from MHC Digital Group expects stablecoin growth to be a key driver of returns in Q4.

The regulatory framework should benefit blockchain networks that support stablecoins, including Ethereum, Solana, Tron, and BNB. Layer 2 networks are also positioned to gain from increased stablecoin usage.

Institutional Money Flows Accelerating

Bitcoin ETFs are purchasing an average of 1,755 Bitcoin daily in 2025, according to financial services company River. This institutional demand is creating consistent buying pressure in the market.

Pav Hundal from Swyftx predicts Bitcoin will hit new highs before year-end, which historically triggers altcoin rallies. The rotation pattern has been consistent throughout 2025, with memecoins and DeFi applications leading gains.

Recent quarters saw US-listed companies converting corporate treasuries to digital assets. Ethereum, Solana, and other tokens emerged as top performers during this trend.

Hyperliquid and Pump.fun have been standout performers in the DeFi space. These platforms have generated waves in crypto markets through revenue-sharing and buyback programs.

Stablecoin Market Projections Surge

Citi bank has revised its stablecoin market forecasts upward after faster-than-expected growth. The bank now projects $1.9 trillion in base case scenarios and $4 trillion in bull case scenarios by 2030.

Current stablecoin issuance has grown from $200 billion at the start of 2025 to $280 billion as of September. This growth rate exceeds previous industry projections.

If stablecoins achieve circulation velocity comparable to fiat currencies, they could support $100 trillion in annual transactions by 2030. The bull case scenario doubles this figure to $200 trillion.

Bank Tokens May Compete With Stablecoins

Citi’s analysis suggests bank tokens could eventually surpass stablecoins in transaction volume. Corporate demand for regulatory safeguards and real-time settlement may drive this shift.

Traditional banking rails moving on-chain could push bank token turnover beyond $100 trillion by decade’s end. This represents a small migration of existing financial infrastructure to blockchain networks.

Most on-chain money remains US dollar-denominated, supporting Treasury demand. Hong Kong and the UAE are emerging as centers for digital currency experimentation outside the dollar system.

Henrik Andersson from Apollo Crypto expects ETF approvals for staked assets and passage of the CLARITY Act in Q4. Revenue-generating DeFi projects are positioned to continue strong performance during this period.

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