Raoul Pal, macro strategist and former Goldman Sachs executive, believes the cycle driving Bitcoin has shifted – and that the next market peak won’t appear until mid-2026.

Pal challenges the idea that halvings dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory. Instead, he argues the cryptocurrency is tethered to the global business cycle, with the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index acting as a guide.

The ISM has lingered below the 50 mark for much of the past three years, signaling economic contraction. That unusually long slump, Pal says, has weighed heavily on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Another factor he highlights is U.S. debt policy. When Treasury maturities were extended from four years to five between 2021 and 2022, the entire rhythm of the business cycle was pushed back. According to Pal, that structural change explains why the familiar four-year pattern has effectively morphed into a five-year one.

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Bitcoin has mirrored this delay. Despite occasional bursts of momentum, Pal notes the global economy has not yet entered a true expansionary phase, and the crypto market is reflecting that reality. His forecast now points to the second quarter of 2026 as the likeliest window for the next explosive rally.

The takeaway? For Pal, Bitcoin remains cyclical – but the clock has been reset. Patience, rather than expectation of an imminent 2025 bull run, may be the key for investors this time around.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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