Crypto Weekly Events: all the expected events (29-05 October)

09/29 (Monday)

Pending home sales are a leading indicator of the American real estate cycle.

A figure below expectations would strengthen the scenario of lower rates and thus a more favorable context for risky assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. A better-than-expected result, on the other hand, could push US yields higher and put pressure on the crypto market.

30/09 (Tuesday)

China – Official PMI (monthly)
Time: 00:30 CEST
The Chinese manufacturing PMI is a barometer of global economic activity. A figure below 50 would indicate contraction and concerns for global growth, with risk-off weighing on crypto.

Conversely, a return above the 50 mark could improve market sentiment and support Bitcoin and altcoins.

Eurozone – Flash Inflation (est.)
Time: 14:00 CEST

European inflation is crucial for ECB decisions. A lower-than-expected CPI would increase expectations of a halt to rate hikes, creating a more positive environment for digital assets.

A higher figure, on the other hand, could strengthen the euro but weigh on Ethereum and European cryptos due to higher real rates.

USA – Federal Budget Deadline (FY25)
Time: 18:00 CEST

The lack of an agreement on the federal budget risks leading to a shutdown from October 1st. A government shutdown would generate uncertainty in traditional markets and could result in increased volatility for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Historically, shutdowns have mixed effects: an initial risk-off shock and subsequent rebounds if the Fed appears more cautious.

01/10 (Wednesday)

Token unlock – Sui (SUI) & EigenLayer (EIGEN)
Time: 00:00 CEST
Large token unlocks (SUI ~44M, EIGEN ~38.8M) could increase selling pressure. For the market, this means a risk of short-term declines, followed by possible technical rebounds if demand can absorb the supply. An event to watch closely, especially on exchanges and liquidity pools.

Ethereum – “Fusaka” Upgrade on Holesky Testnet
Time: 12:00 CEST
The new upgrade introduces scalability improvements such as PeerDAS and an increase in the gas limit. Although it concerns a testnet, it is a crucial step in Ethereum’s roadmap.

A positive outcome consolidates the narrative of greater efficiency and strengthens long-term confidence in ETH and Layer-2.

USA – ADP Employment (sett.)
Time: 14:15 CEST
The ADP private employment report is a preview of the Nonfarm Payrolls. A weak result would favor a dovish context for the Fed and could push Bitcoin and Ethereum upwards. A strong figure, on the other hand, would reignite inflationary fears and pressure on risky assets.

02/10 (Thursday)

USA – Initial Jobless Claims
Time: 14:30 CEST
Weekly unemployment benefit claims are an immediate gauge of the labor market. Data above 240k would indicate a cooling, a positive scenario for crypto.

Conversely, claims below 210k would maintain the “higher rates for longer” narrative, unfavorable to Bitcoin and altcoins.

SEC – Decision on Litecoin Spot ETF (deadline)
Time: 15:00–16:00 CEST
The SEC must rule on the Litecoin spot ETF. The base case remains a rejection, but a positive decision would have enormous implications, paving the way for future ETFs on other altcoins like Solana or XRP.

Binary event with potential strong impact on crypto sentiment.

Token unlock – Ethena (ENA)
Time: 00:00 CEST
The unlocking of 40.6M ENA (~0.6% of the supply) is not huge, but on a relatively less liquid token, it can have amplified effects on the price. Investors will need to closely monitor the order book and volumes.

03/10 (Friday)

USA – Nonfarm Payrolls (sett.)
Time: 14:30 CEST
This is the most important data of the week. A result close to the consensus (+50k) would indicate an orderly slowdown.

Very weak data (<20k) could trigger a crypto rally due to increased expectations of Fed cuts. Conversely, strong numbers (>100k) would reinforce the “higher for longer” scenario, weighing on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

USA – ISM Services (Sept.)
Time: 16:00 CEST
The services sector represents the majority of the American economy. An index below 51 would confirm a slowdown, favoring crypto. Above 55, however, concerns about persistent inflation and consequently higher rates would increase.

04/10 (Saturday)

International Summits – Fintech and Blockchain
Time: 09:00 CEST
The closing of global conferences like Sibos can lead to announcements on CBDC, tokenization, or partnerships between banks and blockchain.

Any positive developments would strengthen the narrative of institutional adoption, with direct impacts on Ethereum, Layer-1, and DeFi solutions.

10/05 (Sunday)

DeFi – Governance Voting (Snapshot)
Time: 18:00 CEST
Governance voting on protocols like Uniswap, Aave, or MakerDAO can impact the value of native tokens.

Decisions on treasury, fee switch, or new protocol parameters are often priced in advance by the market, creating significant movements even during the weekend.