Tesla (TSLA) Stock: China Sales Rebound Ahead of Earnings October 22

TLDR

• Tesla China sold 71,525 vehicles in September 2025, marking its second-highest monthly total this year, just below March’s 74,127 units.
• The company showed a 25% increase from August but recorded its seventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline, down 0.93% compared to September 2024.
• Model Y led sales with 59,907 units wholesale (up 17.1% year-over-year), while Model 3 reached 30,905 units (down 16.8% year-over-year).
• Tesla’s Q3 2025 deliveries hit 497,099 vehicles globally, up 7% year-over-year, likely boosted by U.S. buyers rushing to claim the $7,500 EV tax credit before it expired September 30.
• Tesla stock trades at a P/E ratio of 239, seven times more expensive than the Nasdaq-100’s 33.5 multiple, as investors bet on future products like the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus robot.

Tesla posted 71,525 retail sales in China during September, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. The number represents the company’s second-best monthly performance in 2025.

The September figure trails only the 74,127 units sold in March. It also marks a 25% jump from August’s weaker results.

The improvement comes after a challenging stretch for the EV maker in its second-largest market. Tesla China has logged year-on-year declines for seven straight months in 2025.

Only March and June showed positive growth this year. Much of the weakness stemmed from the transition to the updated Model Y.

Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory exported 19,287 vehicles in September. That’s up 19.6% year-over-year but down 25.9% from August.

The factory follows a pattern of prioritizing exports early in each quarter. Total wholesale volume from Shanghai reached 90,812 units in September, up 2.82% year-over-year.

Model Performance Split

The Model Y continued to dominate Tesla’s Chinese lineup with 59,907 units sold wholesale. That represents a 17.1% increase from last year.

The Model 3 hit 30,905 units, dropping 16.8% year-over-year. However, it showed strength with a 27% monthly gain from August.

Tesla’s market share in China’s new energy vehicle segment rose to 5.52%. Its battery electric vehicle share climbed to 8.66%.

The gains remain modest in a market where competition has intensified. Domestic brands like BYD continue to capture larger portions of the growing EV market.

For the full third quarter, Tesla sold 169,294 vehicles in China. That’s down 6.9% year-over-year, marking the company’s second consecutive quarterly decline.

The quarter still showed a 31.4% recovery compared to Q2. Year-to-date retail sales stand at 432,704 units, down 5.97% from 2024.

Global Delivery Numbers Tell Different Story

Tesla delivered 497,099 EVs worldwide in the third quarter. The 7% year-over-year increase snapped a pattern of declining sales.

The company hasn’t broken down the geographic mix of those deliveries. Analysts believe the U.S. market drove most of the growth.

American buyers rushed to purchase EVs before the $7,500 government tax credit expired on September 30. Tesla holds a 43.1% market share in the U.S., far ahead of General Motors at 13.8%.

The timing raises questions about fourth-quarter performance. Some of those Q3 sales may have simply pulled forward demand from later in the year.

Tesla delivered 1.79 million EVs in 2024, down 1% from the previous year. The first half of 2025 saw an accelerated decline of 13% to 720,803 deliveries.

Stock Valuation Concerns

Tesla shares have climbed 90% over the past year. The rally has pushed the stock’s P/E ratio to 239.

That makes Tesla seven times more expensive than the Nasdaq-100, which trades at a 33.5 P/E ratio. It’s also the priciest stock in the Magnificent Seven by a wide margin.

The valuation is nearly five times higher than Nvidia’s ratio. Investors are betting on future products rather than current automotive sales.

Tesla’s upcoming earnings call on October 22 will focus on the Cybercab robotaxi and Optimus humanoid robot. The Cybercab is scheduled for mass production in 2026.

CEO Elon Musk wants to build a ride-hailing network where robotaxis operate autonomously around the clock. The plan depends on regulatory approval for Tesla’s full self-driving software.

Musk hopes to receive approval in some states before the end of 2025. The Optimus robot remains further from commercialization, with production targets set for around 2030.

Tesla reported its third-quarter delivery numbers showing 497,099 vehicles delivered globally, up 7% year-over-year.

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