Bitcoin market only in apparent difficulty

Last Friday, the Bitcoin market faced difficulties. In a few hours, the price of BTC plummeted from over $120,000 to less than $110,000, but still stopping above $100,000.

However, it remained below $110,000 for just over an hour, and then it immediately bounced back. In fact, it returned there on Sunday, five times, but never stayed for long. 

The Difficulties of the Bitcoin Market

What origins did such difficulties have?

In reality, these are just external factors, which have, however, heavily influenced the BTC market.

In particular, it involved two specific factors. 

The first and most evident was the temporary escalation in the trade war between the USA and China, which then faded within a few hours. 

The second, much less evident, was the forced liquidations of leveraged positions in the crypto derivatives market, a market very similar to that of Bitcoin. 

The combination of the two factors triggered a cascade of sudden and very rapid sales, which at first seemed unstoppable, but eventually halted before the price fell below $100,000.

The recovery of Bitcoin (BTC) price

The key point this time was precisely the subsequent recovery. 

The cascading sales, in fact, did not last more than eight hours, and in the following hours, nothing similar occurred, at least for now.

It should be noted, however, that the price of Bitcoin has not returned above $120,000, therefore some believe it is still struggling. 

Moreover, on Monday it attempted to return to $116,000, but failed, so much so that yesterday it tried twice to break down again below the $110,000 mark.

However, since Sunday it has been doing nothing but moving sideways between $110,000 and $116,000, which is a fairly tight range for BTC‘s habits. 

The Strength of Bitcoin

Extending the analysis to a longer period, what emerges is that instead Bitcoin is continuously showing signs of strength. 

For example, on September 25 (twenty days ago) it fell below $110,000 and stayed there for more than three days. This time, however, it only briefly dipped below this threshold, but always returned above it in just a few hours. 

Furthermore, the average price of the ongoing lateralization phase is the same as that which occurred between September 22 and 24, before the last drop below $110,000. 

In light of this, the fact that in recent days it has not managed to descend back to the levels of late September should absolutely be considered a good sign, despite the drop from the highs. 

The Bubble

The truth is that starting from the first of October, a mini-bubble in the Bitcoin market had inflated, justified only by an excess of enthusiasm for the possible end-of-year bullrun. 

This tiny bubble took the price from $114,000 to $126,000 in less than five days, and then burst starting from Tuesday, October 7, with a crash on Friday, October 10. In fact, the price returned to the levels of late September, actually even slightly higher. 

Mini-bubbles tend to behave just like this: they have a short duration, and when they burst, everything returns to how it was before. 

In other words, the current situation of BTC is practically the same as 15 days ago, if not even slightly better. 

The Comparison with 2017

Something vaguely similar also happened at the end of 2017. 

It should be remembered that 2017 was the first year of Trump in the White House, just as 2025 is the first year of Trump’s second term in the White House. 

There are several parallels with 2017, such as the dollar declining throughout most of the year, albeit with slightly different timing. 

At the time, the recovery of the Bitcoin price began on October 8th, and not on October 1st as this year, and was then followed by a small and brief correction, more or less similar to the one currently underway. 

Starting from October 19, there was a second recovery, which was then followed by another small correction. 

Although the start of the end-of-year bullrun can be traced back to October 8, 2017, the great bullrun, which inflated a gigantic speculative bubble, actually only began on the 31st of the month and continued, with various ups and downs, until December 17. 

If the parallel with 2017 continues, we might expect a new rise in the price of Bitcoin between Sunday and Monday, similar to the one that occurred starting from the first of October.