Hodl or take profits? Bitcoin bear market cycle started at $126k

No one has a crystal ball, but if Bitcoin continues to behave according to its past cycles, then we’ve most likely already reached the peak.

Bitcoin printed an all-time high on Oct. 6, but it failed to extend the move as the post-halving clock approaches the peak zone seen in prior cycles.

The 2024 halving landed on April 20, and prior peaks arrived roughly 526 days after the 2016 halving and 546 days after the 2020 halving.

On that cadence, the current cycle’s peak window spans roughly mid-October to late November.

The Oct. 6 print near $126,200 has not been reclaimed, with spot trading churning between $105,000 to $114,000 and key support near $108,000.

The timing case now intersects with a clear macro shock.

Since the all-time high, the White House announced a new tariff package on Chinese imports, including rates of up to 100 percent on some goods. The headline hit crypto as futures deleveraged roughly $19 billion of liquidations within 24 hours.

Derivatives positioning shifted as well, with heavier demand for downside protection after the wipeout. Funding stresses on the traditional side also flickered, as Reuters reported an unusual jump in usage of the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, a sign that short-term dollar funding tightened into the same window.

The flow tape remains the near-term arbiter. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have operated as the cycle’s marginal buyer. Farside Investors publishes consolidated daily creations and redemptions that allow a quick read on whether cash is entering or leaving the wrapper.

Weekly fund flow context is provided by CoinShares, which tracks broader digital-asset products. A multi-session run of broad net inflows would keep the door open for a late-cycle marginal high.

A choppy to negative run would strengthen the case that Oct. 6 marked the cycle top.

A scenario framework helps translate those inputs into prices and time.

Historic bear runs in Bitcoin ran from about 12 to 18 months and drew down roughly 57 percent in 2018 and 76 percent in 2014 from peak to trough, a pattern charted by NYDIG.

The market structure now includes spot ETFs and deeper derivatives markets, so a lighter band of 35 to 55 percent is a reasonable reference for downside risk management. Applied to $126,272, that produces trough zones of roughly $82,000 to $57,000.

That timeline would place a low sometime in late 2026 into early 2027, broadly in line with the halving cadence referenced above.

The probability that a top is already in rises when timing, macro, and flow all lean the same way. The halving clock is late in the typical range.

The tariff shock created real-economy uncertainty and a visible risk premium in derivatives. Repo facility usage jumped to tighter dollar liquidity.

Bitcoin price has failed to sustain above the early October high and now trades below the first support. The burden of proof sits with demand, and the ETF tape is the cleanest daily measure.

Some argue that the traditional Bitcoin cycle ended when ETFs launched, but new demand has never ended the cyclical pattern in the past. Will it really do it now?

To date, each Bitcoin cycle has delivered diminishing returns. If $126,000 really is the peak for this cycle, that would work out to an 82% gain.

The first drop (Cycle 1→2) saw returns fall by ~57%.

The next drop (Cycle 2→3) saw another ~84% reduction.

If that decay rate had continued proportionally (roughly 70–80% less each cycle), the expected return would have been around 50–70%, not 82%.

So, the potential 82% gain already represents a minor falloff compared to the exponential decay pattern implied by earlier cycles.

This cycle’s relative return is above the trend, potentially signaling a maturing but still resilient cycle, even if this is the top.

While historical returns show a clear decay curve, this cycle’s potential 82% gain slightly breaks the expected downward slope, suggesting either the start of a slower decay phase or structural changes (e.g., ETF demand, institutional capital) moderating the long-term diminishing-return trend.

The opposite case requires a specific sequence.

A five-to-ten-day streak of broad net creations across the ETF complex would show persistent cash demand.

Options skew would need to pivot back toward calls for more than a transient bounce, a shift that third-party dashboards such as Laevitas.

Spot would then need to clear and hold above $126,272 with expanding volume.

That path could produce a marginal new high in the $135,000 to $155,000 area before distribution resumes, a pattern echoed in our past cycle commentaries.

If those conditions do not form by the end of the traditional 518 to 580 day window, time itself becomes the headwind.

Miners add another forward cue. Post-halving revenue per unit of hash has compressed, and fee share moderated from spring spikes, which tightens cash flow for older fleets. The economics and fleet turnover dynamics are followed by Hashrate Index.

If price weakens while energy costs stay firm, periodic miner selling to meet operating costs and service debt can emerge. That supply tends to meet thin order books after shocks. On-chain valuation bands such as MVRV and MVRV-Z help frame late-cycle risk, though absolute thresholds vary by cycle and should not be used in isolation.

Macro carries its own scoreboard.

The dollar path interacts with risk appetite, and Reuters FX wraps provide a running read on relative strength. Rate expectations are tracked by CME FedWatch, which helps interpret whether the tariff shock and any follow-on inflation pressure are altering the path of policy.

If easing expectations slip while the repo facility remains elevated, liquidity for speculative assets can stay constrained.

Readers can track the framework with the table below.

The leverage profile argues for patience. Traders added downside hedges after the tariff shock instead of chasing upside. That is consistent with a market more focused on capital preservation than momentum.

If ETF inflows do not resume quickly, dealer hedging flows from put buying can keep rallies contained. If inflows resume, the structure can shift fast, which is why the tape needs daily attention.

None of this discounts the structural bid in Bitcoin created by the ETF wrapper or the long-run effect of a fixed supply. It maps the late-cycle setup that now carries macro pressure. The halving timer is nearing the end of its historical window.

The Oct. 6 high stands as the price to beat. Until flows change the balance, the distribution case remains the cleaner read.