A Chinese campaign aimed at driving down the price of iron ore could have the unintended effect of keeping prices high or even lifting them further.
That perverse result could result if two of the world’s biggest miners of iron ore merge their Australian assets to counter China’s price cut plan which also includes a demand for payment in Chinese currency rather than U.S. dollars.
BHP Iron Ore train arrives at Port Hedland in Western Australia. Photo by Glen Campbell, Fairfax Media via Getty Images.
Fairfax Media via Getty Images
What’s annoying China is that the price of iron ore has been trading above $100 a ton since early August despite a slowdown in Chinese steel production and repeated demands for miners of the material to cut prices.
BHP, the world’s biggest mining company, and arch-rival Rio Tinto, dominate Australia’s iron ore industry and have tried in the past to merge their iron ore mining assets in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, and the more important railway lines which run close together and in place cross over.
Because iron ore is heavy, bulk material, transport economic dominate its business with rail and shipping arguably more important than mining.
Government competition regulators in Australia have always opposed the two miners merging their assets, or creating a Pilbara Alliance, to achieve efficiencies and boost profits.
But those objections could be dropped if BHP and Rio Tinto can demonstrate that their iron ore businesses in the Pilbara region of Western Australia are threatened by Chinese demands for lower prices and changes to the way the material is sold.
RBC Capital Markets said in a research note that a Pilbara Alliance, or joint venture light might clear regulatory hurdles especially if the two miners can demonstrate that Chinese demands are threatening Australia’s single biggest export industry.
CMRG Wants A Price Cut
Leading the Chinese push for a revised iron ore marketing arrangement is the newly formed China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) which is coordinating more than 85% of the raw material purchases for China’s steel industry.
In effect, the CMRG is trying to flip control of the iron ore industry from the miners, who have been able to dictate terms for the last 20 years, to the steel mills.
But if RBC’s theory of BHP and Rio Tinto merging their iron ore business is correct the Chinese push could fail.
“In our view the CMRG consolidation (of material purchasing) has changed the competitive dynamic enough that a revised Pilbara Alliance, if narrowly structured and compliance driven, may no longer be implausible,” RBC said.
“While a full Rio Tinto/BHP merger remains out of reach, we think a Joint Venture light approach focused on logistics, ore blending and decarbonization alliances could dilute the CMRG’s influence as well as capturing profit margin and capital expenditure benefits.
“In short, CMRG’s creation may have unintentionally reopened the strategic logic for limited Pilbara cooperation between Rio Tinto and BHP, once unthinkable, now potentially pragmatic.”
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2025/10/21/chinas-kicks-an-own-goal-in-iron-ore-with-price-cut-demands/
