Polymarket Traders Cut Trump Tariff Odds 26% as Justices Raise Doubts

TLDR

• Polymarket traders reduced the Trump Tariff winning odds by 26 percent during the Supreme Court hearing.
• Both conservative and liberal justices questioned the legality of Trump Tariff measures under emergency powers.
• Justice Neil Gorsuch warned about unchecked presidential authority in imposing tariffs without Congress.
• Justice Sonia Sotomayor emphasized that tariffs act as taxes on U.S. importers rather than foreign producers.
• Government lawyers argued that the Trump Tariff aimed to address trade imbalances and fentanyl trafficking.

Polymarket traders rapidly reduced their confidence in the Trump Tariff case after Supreme Court justices challenged its legality. The market plunged by 26% during Wednesday’s hearing as skepticism spread across both conservative and liberal justices. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged as market participants shifted toward digital assets during the heightened uncertainty.

Supreme Court Scrutiny Over Trump Tariff Case

The Supreme Court hearing sharply changed trader sentiment after justices questioned the administration’s authority to impose sweeping trade duties. Both conservative and liberal members voiced doubts about whether the president could act unilaterally under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Neil Gorsuch pressed government lawyers on the limits of presidential authority under the Trump Tariff measures. Justice Gorsuch said,

The hearing exposed weaknesses in the administration’s argument, which relied on emergency powers designed for foreign threats, not taxation. The plaintiffs said the Trump Tariff violated the Constitution because Congress alone has taxing power.

Legal Concerns on Executive Power and Congressional Role

Justice Sonia Sotomayor highlighted that tariffs collect money from U.S. importers, not foreign producers, making them tax measures in practice. She said calling tariffs “regulation tools” did not change their real impact on domestic businesses.

Other justices echoed her concern, questioning why a law never used for tariffs was applied to duties affecting nearly all trading partners. They stressed that the Constitution grants taxing powers exclusively to Congress, not the executive branch.

Government lawyers insisted that the Trump Tariff targeted global trade imbalances and illicit flows of fentanyl. However, the Court appeared unconvinced by the argument, as skepticism grew across the bench.

Market Reaction and Polymarket Price Movement

Polymarket traders responded swiftly as courtroom exchanges unfolded and confidence in the Trump Tariff case collapsed. The platform’s prediction odds fell 26%, marking one of the sharpest intraday declines in recent months.

Traders shifted toward safer assets as legal uncertainty weighed on traditional markets. Bitcoin benefited the most as sentiment soured around the Trump Tariff policy outcome.

By late afternoon, Bitcoin climbed above $103,000 after rebounding from lows near $99,500. The cryptocurrency’s rise coincided with the drop in Trump Tariff odds, showing a clear correlation between legal uncertainty and digital asset inflows.

Analysts warned that if the Court strikes down the Trump Tariff, the Treasury might face massive refund obligations. Officials estimated that potential reimbursements could exceed $750 billion in duties collected since the policy began.

Companies involved in the case said the tariffs increased import costs that consumers eventually paid. They also claimed the Trump Tariff disrupted supply chains and inflated domestic prices.

Lower courts have already ruled that Trump exceeded executive powers, and the Supreme Court’s skepticism added pressure. The administration now faces renewed legal and market scrutiny following the justices’ pointed questions.

Bitcoin Rises as Traders Hedge Uncertainty

Bitcoin showed a strong recovery throughout the day as the Trump Tariff hearing spurred volatility in traditional markets. The crypto asset rallied nearly 4% after traders turned to decentralized stores of value.

Charts from TradingView showed a clear uptrend forming once justices expressed doubts over the Trump Tariff’s legality. The shift suggested that traders viewed Bitcoin as protection from policy-related risks.

The rally contrasted its previous drop after Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports last month. Now, Bitcoin’s surge reflected the market’s response to uncertainty surrounding the future of the Trump Tariff program. The Supreme Court’s questioning and Polymarket’s swift reaction underscored growing doubts about the Trump Tariff’s legal foundation. Bitcoin ended the session near $103,000 as traders monitored ongoing developments in the high-stakes case.

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