Bitcoin Treasury Stocks May Near Bottom as Investor Closes MicroStrategy Short

• James Chanos unwinds short on Strategy: The investment firm covered its position as mNAV fell to 1.23x, indicating the bear thesis has played out.

• Bitcoin treasury companies like Strategy and Metaplanet saw sharp declines, with market caps dropping over 40% since mid-2025.

• Resolving US government shutdown pressures boosted Bitcoin prices by 2% to $106,430, hinting at improved sentiment for crypto holdings.

Discover how Bitcoin treasury stocks are rebounding from 2025 lows, with key investor moves and market shifts. Explore the implications for corporate BTC strategies and stay ahead in crypto investments today.

What Are Bitcoin Treasury Stocks and Why Are They Facing Declines?

Bitcoin treasury stocks refer to shares in publicly traded companies that hold significant amounts of Bitcoin on their balance sheets as a strategic reserve asset. These firms, such as Strategy, have adopted Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a means to enhance shareholder value. However, in 2025, these stocks have experienced substantial declines due to compressed market net asset values and broader crypto market volatility.

How Has Strategy’s Market Position Evolved in 2025?

Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, remains the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with 641,205 BTC in its treasury. The company’s market capitalization plummeted over 43% from $122.1 billion in July 2025 to $69.5 billion by late November, reflecting investor concerns over premium valuations. James Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, noted that the implied premium—enterprise value minus Bitcoin holdings—dropped from $70 billion in July to $15 billion, compressing the multiple from 2.0x to 1.23x. This adjustment has made the stock appear more reasonably valued, prompting Chanos to close his short position against Strategy and his long position in Bitcoin at the week’s start. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, viewed this as a positive signal for a reversal in the sector. While further compression could occur if Strategy issues more equity, the core bearish thesis appears to have materialized, stabilizing sentiment.

Other Bitcoin treasury adopters have faced similar headwinds. Metaplanet, a standout performer on the Tokyo Stock Exchange earlier in 2025, saw its market cap slashed by 56% since June 21. Across roughly 200 publicly traded companies with Bitcoin on their books, share prices have tumbled amid doubts about the long-term viability of these strategies. Some firms have even resorted to selling portions of their Bitcoin reserves to manage debt obligations, underscoring the financial strain from prolonged market downturns.

The sector’s challenges are not isolated to individual companies. Broader crypto market dynamics have exacerbated the pressure, with Bitcoin prices fluctuating amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Analysts from firms like Kynikos Associates have highlighted how overextended premiums in Bitcoin-linked equities led to corrections, but recent developments suggest stabilization. For instance, Chanos emphasized in his note that covering the trade below 1.25x mNAV aligns with prudent risk management after the decline from higher multiples. Rochard echoed this optimism, stating that the Bitcoin treasury company bear market is gradually concluding.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Impact Has the US Government Shutdown Had on Bitcoin Treasury Stocks?

The US government shutdown in late 2025 created significant uncertainty, dampening investor confidence in risk assets like Bitcoin and related stocks. Treasury companies saw heightened volatility as liquidity concerns grew, but reports of a Senate agreement on budget bills led to a quick 2% Bitcoin rebound to $106,430, signaling potential relief for the sector.

Are Bitcoin Treasury Strategies Still Viable for Corporations in 2025?

Yes, Bitcoin treasury strategies remain a viable option for corporations seeking diversification and inflation protection, as demonstrated by major holders like Strategy. Despite recent declines, compressed valuations offer entry points for long-term investors, with experts like Pierre Rochard noting emerging reversal signals that could restore confidence in these approaches.

Key Takeaways

• Investor Shift Signals Recovery: James Chanos closing his short on Strategy indicates the worst of the mNAV compression may be over, potentially marking a sector bottom.
• Market Cap Declines Highlight Risks: Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet lost over 40% of their value in 2025, driven by premium unwinding and external pressures.
• Easing Macro Factors Boost Outlook: Resolution of the US shutdown could improve sentiment, encouraging more stable pricing for Bitcoin treasury stocks.

Conclusion

Bitcoin treasury stocks have navigated a turbulent 2025, with significant declines in key players like Strategy underscoring the volatility of corporate Bitcoin strategies. As market net asset values stabilize and influential shorts unwind, the sector shows signs of recovery amid resolving external pressures. Investors should monitor ongoing developments closely, positioning themselves for potential upside as Bitcoin’s role in corporate treasuries continues to evolve.