Bitcoin’s sharp bounce back above $100,000 earlier in the month didn’t restore the confidence many expected.
Instead of accelerating, BTC has entered a phase that traders describe as tired and unresponsive — a market that’s drifting rather than leading.
What’s puzzling investors now is not the recovery itself, but how Bitcoin is behaving relative to U.S. equities, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq.
Wintermute: Bitcoin Is Acting Like a Weak Tech Proxy
Wintermute’s research team says Bitcoin’s current behavior has less to do with crypto-specific flows and more to do with how tightly it is shadowing the Nasdaq.
Jasper De Maere, one of the firm’s analysts, notes that the relationship has tightened to a correlation near 0.8, meaning BTC’s moves are now strongly shaped by tech-sector sentiment.
But it’s the imbalance that stands out.
BTC Reacts Violently to Nasdaq Down Days — Barely Moves on Up Days
Wintermute’s data shows a clear pattern:
- When the Nasdaq slips, Bitcoin falls harder and faster.
- When the Nasdaq rallies, Bitcoin barely participates.
This lopsided reaction is known as a negative performance curve — a setup where downside volatility is amplified while upside moves become faint or delayed.
That behavior is uncommon in strong markets. But it is something traders have seen before.
A Pattern That Historically Appears Near Market Bottoms
De Maere points out that the last time Bitcoin displayed this exact asymmetry was during the final stretch of the 2022 bear market, when panic selling was giving way to seller exhaustion.
This doesn’t guarantee an imminent reversal, but it suggests BTC may be in the late stages of a corrective phase.
Wintermute argues that such patterns rarely appear at market tops. Instead, they tend to emerge when macro-driven selling pressure is close to burning out — a sign that the market is absorbing bad news more aggressively than good news.
What This Means for Bitcoin Now
If Bitcoin continues to underperform tech rallies but overreact to tech declines, the market may be carving out a structural bottom, not forming a new top.
The recent wobble under $100,000 — followed by a rapid recovery — fits the same profile: high volatility, emotional trading, and sensitivity to macro fear.
BTC may be struggling in the short term, but the underlying behavior has historically preceded stabilization, not collapse.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-shows-odd-market-pattern-that-resembles-2022-bottom-phase/
