Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Death Cross Approaches Yet History Shows a Massive Rally After

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped to $93,029 on Sunday, falling below its January 1 starting price of $93,507 for the first time this year
• The cryptocurrency is down 25% from its October all-time high of around $126,000 despite pro-crypto Trump administration policies
• The 50-day moving average is approaching the 200-day moving average, signaling a potential “death cross” technical pattern
• Previous death crosses in this cycle have marked local market bottoms rather than continued declines
• Bitcoin fell 10% following the US government reopening on November 12, mirroring a similar pattern from 2019

Bitcoin temporarily lost all its 2025 gains over the weekend. The cryptocurrency fell to $93,029 on Sunday before recovering to around $94,209.

The decline pushed Bitcoin below its January 1 price of $93,507. This marks the first time the cryptocurrency has traded below its year-opening level despite positive industry developments throughout 2025.

The selloff comes as Bitcoin sits 25% below its October all-time high near $126,000. Other major cryptocurrencies also posted losses, with Ethereum down 7.95% and Solana down 28.3% from the start of the year.

Technical Patterns Point to Local Bottom

Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average currently stands at $110,669. It is approaching the 200-day moving average at $110,459. When the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, it creates what traders call a “death cross.”

This pattern typically signals bearish momentum. However, data from Glassnode shows a different story for Bitcoin’s current cycle.

The death cross has appeared three times since 2023. Each occurrence marked a local bottom rather than continued declines. In September 2023, Bitcoin bottomed near $25,000 during a death cross. In August 2024, the cryptocurrency found support around $49,000 during the yen carry trade unwind.

The most recent death cross occurred in April 2025. Bitcoin bottomed below $75,000 during uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies.

The current correction has lasted 41 days. The April correction was both deeper and longer, with Bitcoin falling 30% over 79 days from the January peak near $109,000.

Government Reopening Echoes 2019 Pattern

The US government shutdown ended on November 12 after a record 43 days. Bitcoin has dropped 10% since the reopening.

This mirrors the 2019 government shutdown pattern. After the government reopened on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin fell more than 9% over five days. It took approximately two weeks for the cryptocurrency to recover.

Glassnode analysts noted that older Bitcoin holders have been selling portions of their holdings. The firm characterized this as “normal bull-market behaviour” rather than a mass exodus. The selling reflects “late-cycle profit-taking” patterns typical of mature bull runs.

Corporate Bitcoin treasury adoption has increased throughout 2025. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have also seen continued inflows. The Trump administration has delivered on most of its pro-crypto promises since taking office on January 20.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan maintains a positive outlook for 2026. He cited the “debasement trade” thesis and growth in stablecoins, tokenization and decentralized finance.

Bitcoin has rebounded from its Sunday low but remains below its 2025 starting price as of Monday.

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