The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September on Thursday at 13:30 GMT.
The US Dollar (USD) traders eagerly await the September employment report for clear hints on the health of the labor market and whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates next month.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 50,000 in September after increasing by a meagre 22,000 in August. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is likely to stabilize at 4.3% during the same period.
Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.7% year-over-year (YoY), at the same pace as seen in August.
Previewing the September employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “Job gains likely rebounded to 100K in September, supported by private NFP increasing 125K. Government jobs likely declined 25K.”
“We also look for the UE rate to go sideways at 4.3% as layoffs remain subdued. AHE likely moderated to 0.2% MoM (3.6% YoY),” they added.
How will the US September Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
The US Dollar has snapped its previous week’s pullback against its major currency rivals, staging an impressive turnaround against its major currency rivals as it gears up for the NFP showdown.
The renewed USD strength has pushed the EUR/USD pair back below the 1.1600 threshold. Will the downside continue?
A recent slew of prudent Fed commentaries and weak US private sector employment data have scaled back expectations of another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the central bank in December. Fed policymakers remain increasingly divided about how to balance inflation risks against a cooling labor market, prompting them to warrant caution on further monetary policy easing.
The Minutes of the October monetary policy meeting showed on Wednesday that “policymakers cautioned that lower borrowing costs could undermine the fight against inflation.”
Following the Minutes release, the odds for a December Fed rate cut declined to 33%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, having seen around 50% before the event and at 65% a week ago.
On the economic data front, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change report, released on November 5, showed that US private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations of a 25,000 gain.
Meanwhile, data published by the executive outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on November 6 showed that corporations announced a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs, marking the worst October in over two decades, per Reuters.
Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) came in at 48.7 in October, coming in lower than the forecast of 49.5. Contrarily, the ISM Services PMI increased more than expected to 52.4 last month due to a solid jump in New Orders.
Amidst resurfacing US economic and labor market concerns, the September employment report, albeit stale, is eagerly awaited by markets to gauge the direction of the Fed’s interest rates in the coming months.
“Even as the September Nonfarm report will be somewhat dated, it may be the final full employment report the Fed has in hand ahead of its December monetary policy meeting,” economists at Wells Fargo said ahead of the release.
A reading below the 50,000 mark and an unexpected increase in the Unemployment Rate could affirm a slack in the US jobs market, reviving bets for a rate cut by the Fed in December. In such a case, the USD could come under intense selling pressure, lifting EUR/USD back toward 1.1700.
In contrast, if the NFP shows an outstanding job gain and the Unemployment Rate stays at 4.3% or even decreases, EUR/USD could extend the bearish momentum toward levels under 1.1400. Stellar jobs data would take bets of a December Fed rate cut off the table, providing additional legs to the USD upside.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“The main currency pair closed Wednesday below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1574, reinforcing further declines. Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds well below the midline on the daily chart, adding credence to the bearish potential.”
“If the downside extends, the next support is seen at the November 5 low of 1.1469, below which the 200-day SMA at 1.1395 will be threatened. The line in the sand for buyers is located at the 1.1350 psychological level. On the flip side, any recovery will need acceptance above the 21-day SMA at 1.1574. The next relevant bullish target is seen at around 1.1650, where the 50-day and 100-day SMAs intersect. Additional upside could lead to the 1.1700 round level.”
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Read more.
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nonfarm-payrolls-set-to-show-moderate-job-gains-marking-resumption-of-us-data-releases-202511200500
