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Attention Bitcoin Bulls: BTC is No
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Attention Bitcoin Bulls: BTC is No
Attention Bitcoin Bulls: BTC is Now at Levels Preceding FTX-Era Extremes
Attention Bitcoin Bulls: BTC is Now at Levels Preceding FTX-Era Extremes
Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out.
By Shaurya Malwa|Edited by Oliver Knight
Updated Nov 21, 2025, 1:44 p.m. Published Nov 21, 2025, 1:44 p.m.
(Sternschnuppenreiter/Pixabay)
What to know:
- Bitcoin is experiencing a significant momentum break, with onchain indicators showing signals last seen during major market downturns.
- Realized losses have surged, driven by short-term holders unwinding as Bitcoin falls below its 200-day moving average.
- Market positioning is nearing levels historically linked to short-term bottoms, but volatility is expected to remain high without a clear macro catalyst.
Bitcoin is showing one of the deepest momentum breaks of the cycle, with several onchain indicators now printing signals last seen during the industry’s most violent washouts.
Data from Glassnode shows realized losses have surged to levels comparable to the November 2022 capitulation around the FTX collapse. The spike is being driven almost entirely by short-term holders, a colloquial term for wallets that bought within the past 90 days, unwinding at scale as BTC extends its fall below the 200-day moving average.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
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Short-term realized-loss dominance is typical of market stress, but the magnitude this week stands out. The current cluster is the largest since early 2023, and one of only a handful in the past five years to reach a $600 million to $1 billion daily run-rate.
(Glassnode)
Market structure indicators tell a similar story. Independent analyst MEKhoko noted that BTC is now trading more than 3.5 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average.
That kind of displacement has occurred only three times in the past decade: November 2018, the March 2020 pandemic crash, and June 2022 during the Three Arrows Capital/Luna crisis.
This week’s drawdown matches the same behavioral pattern: A sharp expansion in spot selling, collapsing funding rates, and a measurable retreat of marginal buyers who previously leaned on momentum.
With BTC now deeply stretched below trend, washed-out short-term holders, and sentiment pinned in extreme fear, market positioning is approaching levels historically associated with short-term bottoms.
But without a clear macro catalyst, traders warn that volatility around these levels is likely to remain elevated.
Bitcoin NewsFTXmarket crash
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Bitcoin Bounces Above $84K as Fed's Williams Puts December Rate Cut Back on Table
Previously having essentially written off chances of further monetary ease in 2025, interest rate traders are now pricing more than a 70% chance of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
What to know:
- NY Fed President John Williams said Friday there's still room to adjust policy in the near term, putting a potential rate cut in December back on the table.
- Continuing in the grip of panicky selling, bitcoin managed to bounce back over $84,000 from its morning low below $81,000; U.S. stock index futures rose as well.
- The Fed's surprise hawkish pivot in late October contributed to bitcoin's rapid slide over the past weeks, now down more than 30% from its record level.
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